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Tennessee Titans over/under: Jeffery Simmons

By Will Lomas

STARKVILLE, MS - NOVEMBER 23: head coach Dan Mullen of the Mississippi State Bulldogs talks with Jeffery Simmons #94 of the Mississippi State Bulldogs during the second half of an NCAA football game at Davis Wade Stadium on November 23, 2017 in Starkville, Mississippi. (Photo by Butch Dill/Getty Images)
STARKVILLE, MS - NOVEMBER 23: head coach Dan Mullen of the Mississippi State Bulldogs talks with Jeffery Simmons #94 of the Mississippi State Bulldogs during the second half of an NCAA football game at Davis Wade Stadium on November 23, 2017 in Starkville, Mississippi. (Photo by Butch Dill/Getty Images) /
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What should we judge Tennessee Titans rookie Jeffery Simmons on?

The Tennessee Titans drafted Jeffery Simmons in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft, but how can you quantify the success of a player’s rookie season when he is going to miss so much time?

As rookie mini camp starts and fans start to get their first look at rookies in their new Titans uniforms, I wanted to try to find a way to quantify expectations for Simmons before we start to hear good or bad news about his recovery time.

Right now, a lot of people are talking about over/under totals set by Vegas books. These are set numbers that give an expectation of their impact on a team based on stats. For example, I think top-5 pick Clelin Ferrell’s line is 5.5 sacks for some people.

That basically means that the expectation is that Ferrell will get between 4-7 sacks this season. But O/U bets aren’t limited to sacks, they can be anything. So here is what I came up with for Jeffery Simmons.

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Over/Under: 5.5 Games played

There were plenty of bigger needs for the Titans and several players who could have filled those needs, but Robinson seemed to understand how the draft would play out and realized that drafting Simmons gave him the best chance to add a potentially great player at a position of need.

As we all know by now, the issue isn’t the talent of the player but it was mostly the ACL injury that he suffered in February.

Earlier in May I wrote about what a timeline could look like for Jeffery Simmons and his return to football.

Some people think that he could come back as early as Week 7, but I think the standard line of thought is that he will be healthy around the bye Week and could play as early as Week 12.

If he comes back for Week 12, that has to be considered a win and if he can stay healthy then he will hit the over. But, if there is a bump in the road with his health or if the Titans just feel like they shouldn’t rush him then that could push him to Week 13.

There are still the outlier possibilities of a Week 7/8 return or not coming back until Week 16 if at all, but the line feels right at 5.5.

Over/Under: 1.5 sacks

This may seem low for someone that people think was a top-5 player in the 2019 NFL Draft, but there are a few reasons why this number feels fair. Last year, Jurrell Casey led the Titans in sacks with 7, but in 1216 combined snaps DaQuan Jones, Austin Johnson and Bennie Logan combined for 1 sack.

That means that in roughly 10% of the snaps, Simmons would have to out produce all three of those players on a recently healed knee. If he can top that number then he deserves a bunch of credit for just being that talented.

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Over/Under: 5.5 TFLs

While Simmons didn’t have elite sack production in college, he was one of the best interior defensive linemen in CFB at disrupting plays. That dominance included breaking up a lot of runs in the backfield, tallying 29 TFLs in his final 26 games.

If he returns and plays in Week 12, then these are the offensive lines he will get to face:

-Jacksonville Jaguars (mediocre)

-Indianapolis Colts (very good)

-Oakland Raiders (mediocre)

-Houston Texans x2 (maybe the worst in the NFL)

-New Orleans Saints (very good)

So there will be some up and down competition, but if he can have big days against the Houston Texans then all he has to do is beat average competition at that point.

If the Titans ask him to hold the line and allow players like Jayon Brown and Rashaan Evans to blitz then it will really make it difficult to produce. Having said that, if the Titans let him pin his ears back and go then he could really put up some nice numbers per game late in the season.

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