Jeffery Simmons was an emotional tone-setter and a locker room leader for the Tennessee Titans, and his consistent dominance was the one thing that gave the franchise any credibility for the past few years. Even ignoring all of the tangible and intangible things that he brought to the team, Titans fans are in for a rude awakening about what first-round picks actually do for a team.
The actual compensation for both sides of the Simmons trade looks like this:
Chicago Bears receive: Jeffery Simmons, 2027 fifth-round pick.
Titans receive: 2027 first-round pick, fourth-round pick, 2028 first-round pick.
That looks like a great package of picks for the Titans. After all, you can add a lot of talent to a rebuilding roster with two first-round picks. Except not all first-round picks are created equal, and even though everyone knows that on paper, it doesn't seem to register with this fan base right now.
Titans GM Mike Borgonzi could live to regret the Jeffery Simmons trade
The Bears are one of the teams with the best odds to win the Super Bowl, so at a minimum, you can expect that they will make the playoffs this year. If they advance to at least the divisional round, you should expect this draft pick to end up being in the 25-32 range for the next two years.
Are good players still available in that range? Absolutely, and teams draft players that can make an impact in the second and third rounds if they select wisely. However, how often do late first-round picks become players that help build the foundation of those rosters? Not very often.
Over the last five years, here are the players that have been selected in that range.
2022: Tyler Linderbaum, Jermaine Johnson, Devin Lloyd, Devonte Wyatt, Cole Strange, George Karlaftis, Dax Hill, Lewis Cine
The good news is that there are some good players on this list, but the bad news is that the three players who made the Pro Bowl at some point in their careers all ended up on different teams because regime changes made them expendable.
2023: Dalton Kincaid, Mazi Smith, Anton Harrison, Myles Murphy, Bryan Bresee, Nolan Smith, Felix Anudike-Uzomah
A mixed bag here. Dalton Kincaid has been solid, and Anton Harrison has become a reliable starter, but everyone else has either been cut, relegated to being a role player, or simply aren't very good.
2024: Jordan Morgan, Graham Barton, Darius Robinson, Xavier Worthy, Tyler Guyton, Nate Wiggins, Ricky Pearsall, Xavier Legette
A disappointing group of players with Graham Barton being the lone starter that seems to standout as someone who is on track to be a building block for this team.
2025: Jaxson Dart, James Pearce, Malaki Starks, Tyleik Williams, Josh Conerly, Maxwell Hairston, Jihaad Campbell, Josh Simmons
Simmons has been a train wreck for the Kansas City Chiefs, and Pearce has his own legal issues that might get in the way of his talent, which was the fear when he was drafted. No one in this group looks overly impressive early on other than Dart, but he struggled with concussions before a knee injury ended his sophomore season in September.
2026: Dillon Thieneman, Keylan Rutledge, Chris Johnson, Caleb Lomu, Peter Woods, Omar Cooper, Keldric Faulk, Jadarian Price
These are just the players from this class to keep an eye on for the rest of the season to show how much of an impact these players make as rookies without hindsight distorting things.
You can go back further, but the information is the same. Players in this range are rarely quality starters, and it is even rarer that they are quality starters within the first two seasons of their careers.
While that doesn't mean that the Titans won't get some pieces out of this trade, the sad fact that fans are going to have to come to terms with is that history suggests the picks from the Bears won't move the needle on the Titans' rebuild unless they draft better than league-average results in that range.
At this point, the Titans should take phone calls on everyone and rip the band-aid off now. This team will be in an emotional tailspin anyway, and they will need every bit of the upcoming bye week to forget about how terribly yet another season is going.
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