Fit with Titans
The Titans haven't used a first round pick on a defensive end or outside linebacker since Derrick Morgan back in 2010. Carter would be the most talented pass rusher drafted into the organization since the team selected Jevon Kearse over 25 years ago.
The outside linebacker room is thin for the Titans with only five players under contract heading into next season. Harold Landry is starting to creep up in age, just had his first full season with under 10.0 sacks since 2020, and could be a cap casualty this offseason. Arden Key is a solid depth piece, but could save the team $7 million if he's cut after June 1st. Khalid Duke, Ali Gaye, and rookie Jaylen Harrell haven't shown enough to be considered long-term building blocks.
During the 2024 season, the Titans ranked in the bottom five of the NFL in sacks, pass-rush win rate, and pressure rate. The top pass rushing prospect in the 2025 NFL Draft could come in and instantly be the atop the outside linebacker depth chart for the team. Carter was in the 99th percentile for pass-rush win rate during the 2024 season according to PFF. Carter's threat on the outside combined with Jeffery Simmons and T'Vondre Sweat clogging up the middle will make life easier for Landry, Key, or any other outside linebackers the team brings in.
Penn State played mostly out of 4-3 and 4-2-5 formations on defense last year, meaning Carter will have to transition positions to play 3-4 outside linebacker. This change would allow Carter's deficiencies in run coverage to be masked while allowing the star defender to highlight his pass rushing skills and occasionally drop into pass coverage. Landry ranked 5th among 211 edge defenders in 2024 with 878 snaps, I'd expect Carter to eat into that and have a huge workload instantly given the lack of additional options at the position.
With the strength of the Titans interior defensive front, Carter could push for double digit sacks in his rookie season while playing heavy snaps and adjusting to the size and speed of the NFL. Down the line, Carter should continue to be among the league's premier pass rushers and impact games with his elite ability to create pressure and draw defensive attention.
Summary
Drafting Carter would fill a massive need and provide some much needed youth for the Titans defense. The combination of speed, bend, and technical skills to beat pass blockers give the Penn State defender annual double digit sack upside. The Titans won't pass on a "generational talent" at pick one, according to President of Football Ops Chad Brinker, but we have yet to see if the team views Carter in that light. Regardless, the pass rusher is one of the few elite talents in this draft and would add a new element to the team's pass rush.
If the Titans don't fall in love with either of the top quarterbacks in the draft and can't trade down, then Carter makes a ton of sense to go first overall. Elite pass rushers don't come available via the free agent market and are incredibly expensive via trade. The Penn State product has the talent and plays a position that's among the most valuable in the sport. The Titans need to strongly consider drafting Carter whether that's with the top pick or further down the draft board.