NFL projects toughest stretch for Tennessee Titans in 2020
By Will Lomas
NFL.com explains when the Titans might struggle.
Cynthia Frelund does a lot of interesting things with analytics for NFL.com, including mock drafts, odds teams like the Tennessee Titans will win their matchup in a certain week and more.
I encourage you to check out her stuff any time you can which is why I wanted to talk a little bit about her newest project.
In it, she uses her win probability analytics to find the toughest four-week stretch for every team in the league. Recently she broke down the AFC South and in that video she described Tennessee’s toughest month of play.
According to her, she says that these games will be the most difficult:
Week 3 @ Minnesota Vikings (44.7% win probability)
Week 4 vs Pittsburgh Steelers (54.2%)
Week 5 vs Buffalo Bills (42.2%)
Week 6 vs Houston Texans (55.6%)
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I have to say that being favored in two of the games in the “toughest stretch of the season” for the Titans is a far cry from where this team has been at any point in the last decade or more. Especially when you consider the fact that this is a team that has had to claw their way into the playoffs in Week 17 in their only playoff appearances in the last decade.
It also helps that Tennessee will see the Steelers, Bills and Texans on their turf and in the warm weather of Nashville where these teams will feel the heat (Houston plays in a dome). Their one road game is to the dome in Minnesota which should mitigate any weather problems they might have had in years past.
If the Titans can handle this stretch early in the season then it could be huge for their playoff chances in 2020. In fact, it could dictate whether or not Tennessee gets to host a playoff game for the first time in…forever.
Speaking of playoffs, what does Frelund’s model say about Tennessee’s chances at winning the AFC South?
Bonus stat
Frelund also mentions in her video breakdown that she believes the Indianapolis Colts will win the division based on her model, though the numbers are very close. However, in both matchups vs the Titans this season Frelund has Tennessee as the favorites.
To me, that reads as if she is saying that Tennessee probably has the better team and definitely the better of those two teams in a vacuum. However, due to the Colts facing an easier schedule than the Titans, they get a chance to make up that difference in talent.