Counterpoint to Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry’s lofty 2019 expectations
By Sunny Hon
Are we all getting a little bit ahead of ourselves with the expectations of Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry?
Tennessee Titans running back, Derrick Henry is garnering a lot of hype going into the 2019 season.
Ranked as one of the top running backs against a stacked defensive front by Pro Football Focus, the 6’3″ 240 lb Henry was difficult to stop in 2018.
The former Alabama Heisman Trophy winner finished the 2018 season as one of the top players in his position averaging 4.9 yards per carry and muscled his way into the endzone for 12 scores.
In an established run-dominant offense, Henry was the featured star. The expectation for the 2019 season would be to build on the successes of late last season and dominate the league from the ground.
While the Tennessee Titans seem to be going full throttle on the ground attack by adding all-pro guard Rodger Saffold to fortify an already dominate offensive line that features tackle Taylor Lewan, the statistical success of Derrick Henry isn’t guaranteed.
More from Titans News
- Tennessee Titans suspiciously quiet about major draft need
- Tennessee Titans agree to new deal with star Jeffery Simmons
- Caesars Promo Code Expires Soon – Claim $1,250 Today
- 3 needs that are being overblown by Tennessee Titans fans
- Tennessee Titans have potential dilemmas in 2023 NFL Draft
In examining data from the past season, in accordance to Playerprofiler.com, the percentage of offensive snaps share for Henry was lower when compared to other top running backs in the league.
Players such as Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley and Saquon Barkley all had above 87% of offensive snap shares along with above 80% opportunity shares (carries plus pass targets.)
Derrick Henry’s 2018 usage rate was significantly lower than those aforementioned tailbacks with 43.1% of offensive snap shares and 50.8% opportunity shares.
More from Titan Sized
- Tennessee Titans suspiciously quiet about major draft need
- Tennessee Titans agree to new deal with star Jeffery Simmons
- Caesars Promo Code Expires Soon – Claim $1,250 Today
- 3 needs that are being overblown by Tennessee Titans fans
- Tennessee Titans have potential dilemmas in 2023 NFL Draft
Although it’s conceivable that the Henry’s opportunity share percentage could go up in the 2019 season stemming from his late 2018 season surge, his snap share percentage will probably maintain status quo.
The main reason for such prediction is that Derrick Henry is not considered a pass catcher. While among top-tier backfield runners in the NFL, Henry was only targeted 18 times in the passing game last season culminating with just 15 catches for 99 yards. His backfield mate, Dion Lewis, had significantly more pass-catching opportunities with 67 targets.
Outside of obvious running downs, Dion Lewis will undoubtedly substitute for Derrick Henry in the backfield for second or third and long situations in this coming season. Such personnel usage will certainly prevent Henry to be mentioned along with the league’s top tailbacks.
Derrick Henry is expected to have a great 2019 season. Aside from being a contract year, newly minted offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith, will feature Henry in his running offense. His productivity will undoubtedly eclipse those of last season. Yet, because Derrick Henry is a vintage tailback in the modern NFL, he just might fall short of league leading expectations.