Why you need to pay attention to Tennessee Titans UDFAs

The Tennessee Titans nailed the 2019 draft, but the “eighth round” may end up being the more important than Day 3.

Last year one of the Tennessee Titans biggest happy surprises was the development of Sharif Finch an UDFA rookie EDGE from Temple.

Despite having just four picks in the draft, seven rookies made the opening roster for the Tennessee Titans. One of those was obviously Finch, and the UDFAs actually outnumbered the draft picks four to three.

Now, I don’t expect the UDFA class to produce more roster players than the draft class this year, but historically teams do better in UDFA than on Day 3. Look at this graph:

Quick note, this is based on offensive and defensive snaps so this isn’t even including special teams standouts.

Again, the draft is really only three or four rounds long. After that the results are so much spottier and like the graph shows, outside of the first 100 picks you have a better chance of finding a contributor in UDFA than with those picks.

Full transparency, there are three main reason for this.

First of all, you get so many more opportunity in free agency. A team may sign nearly 20 players in UDFA compared to having four Day 3 picks. Even if you only hit on half as many players in UDFA, you still come out significantly ahead.

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Another reason is because red flags disappear in UDFA. Players with injury red flags, character issues, weight problems, effort questions, etc. all are picks with high upside and no downside because you really aren’t committed to any of them beyond camp.

The final reason is because UDFAs get to choose their landing spot. If you are a QB, it probably isn’t smart to go to the Tennessee Titans because they aren’t going to keep 3 QBs heading into the season and they are already pretty committed to Marcus Mariota and Ryan Tannehill. However, a running back could easily make the roster considering the need at returner and on special teams immediately and the potential for Derrick Henry, Dion Lewis and David Fluellen to all be gone in 2020.

Right now there are four UDFAs that are potentially signing with the Titans that had draftable grades from Dane Brugler. Those rookies are:

-Alex Barnes RB, Kansas State (Kalen Ballage)

-Hamp Cheevers CB, Boston College (Parry Nickerson)

-Derick Roberson EDGE, Sam Houston State (Alex McCalister)

-Amani Bledsoe DL, Oklahoma (Bronson Kafusi)

You may notice some names beside those players. That would be because Thor Nystrom went through and actually made comps for 500+ players, and those are the comps he made.

The obvious standout there is Barnes. He had some special explosion testing and if he can be what Kalen Ballage was/is for the Miami Dolphins (45 touches, 247 yards, 5.3 yards per attempt, 1 TD) he would be a great signing for the Titans.

Ultimately, I think all four of those players will get a chance to compete for a job with the Titans. Outside of Barnes, the Titans may look to move a cornerback before the season starts giving Cheevers a shot. Roberson could be a special teams player and could be a very cheap developmental speed rusher that the Titans can teach up. Bledsoe is the least likely, but the Titans need defensive line depth and he could fight Matt Dickerson and Dee Liner for a roster spot if no one else is signed.