Tennessee Titans 12th best option in the 2019 NFL Draft: T.J. Hockenson

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - OCTOBER 06: T.J. Hockenson #38 of the Iowa Hawkeyes scores a touchdown against Jacob Huff #2 of the Minnesota Golden Gophers during the first quarter of the game on October 6, 2018 at TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)
MINNEAPOLIS, MN - OCTOBER 06: T.J. Hockenson #38 of the Iowa Hawkeyes scores a touchdown against Jacob Huff #2 of the Minnesota Golden Gophers during the first quarter of the game on October 6, 2018 at TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) /
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When is it the right time for the Tennessee Titans to draft a talented player they don’t really need?

The Tennessee Titans probably don’t need to draft a tight end in the first 75 picks of the 2019 NFL Draft.

Fortunately for every T.J. Hockenson stan out there, exceptions can be made for exceptional talents.

Before breaking down why he is 12th on this list, a quick reminder of what this list actually is and the players who could be on it:

-Nick Bosa, Quinnen Williams and Josh Allen will be gone barring a huge 1st round trade that is nearly impossible to imagine. They can’t be included in this list.

-Which of the players available specifically make the Tennessee Titans better?

-Don’t treat this as a big board, some positions won’t be brought up because there is no one talented enough that can come in and be an instant improvement over what the Titans already have.

-While long term help is important, consider what this player does for Tennessee short term and if they will help reduce the hit of free agent departures in the future.

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Which player is the 12th best option for the Tennessee Titans in the 1st round?

T.J. Hockenson TE, Iowa

Hockenson seems like one of the safest picks in the 2019 NFL Draft. He is one of the rare tight ends that has top-end athleticism and does all of the things that you want in a tight end.

As a receiver you can use him in a variety of ways. He can attack the deep middle, he can work in the intermidiate portions of the field, you can even line him up at fullback and work him on flares and wheel routes.

As a blocker he can handle his own in the run game even though he may not be quite as outstanding as everyone says. Still, being able to get a capable blocker in the slot, backfield or on the line is valuable.

So, why is he so low on the list? Well, because he wouldn’t help the Titans that much in year one.

People are going to come into my mentions and talk about running two tight end formations or having him outright start over Delanie Walker. All I can say is that I don’t think that makes sense at all.

First of all, the Tennessee Titans just signed Adam Humphries to a big deal to come and play in the slot. They aren’t paying him $9 million per year to be a guy who plays less than 60% of the snaps.

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Let’s say that’s all they play him and that leaves the Titans in 2TE sets for 40% of the plays. Hockenson comes in and is the TE2 in those formations, which means he is likely going to be the third or fourth read at best on those plays.

Is a guy who plays 40% of the snaps and isn’t the primary or secondary read on most of those plays worth the 19th pick in the draft?

Even if he is, the Titans aren’t just going to give him that job. So you are going to have Hockenson come in and practice with the second team behind Delanie Walker and Jonnu Smith for most of the preseason.

He probably won’t get real first team reps until the middle of the season or so, which means his development will be slower than most want to admit.

That brings me to the other big issue, 1st round tight ends are historical a waste of draft capital.

Do you know how many first round tight ends have been Pro Bowlers with the team that drafted them in the last 10 years? Just 2:

Jermaine Gresham

Tyler Eifert

What about tight ends that were selected in the 2nd or 3rd? Shockingly enough, there have been 7:

Rob Gronkowski

Jimmy Graham

Kyle Rudolph

Zach Ertz

Travis Kelce

Jordan Reed

Austin Hooper

While the hit rate is a little big higher on Day 1 rather than Day 2 (25% compared to 18.4%) the fact is teams have gotten worse at drafting first round tight ends over the last 10 years and not better.

Since Tyler Eifert was drafted in 2013, there have been 5 TEs drafted in the first round and none of them have made a Pro Bowl with the team that drafted them.

Forget all the numbers, just look at the lists of those players above. If you were picking blindly, which group would you rather add a player from the first list or the second list. Unquestionably you would pick from the second group.

I hate to end this on a low note, but there has to be some perspective put into this discussion.

I like Hockeson so much that I graded him as a top-12 player on my board. Does that mean he is a fit for the Titans? No. Does that mean that he will be a good value for the Titans? History says no.

I think he has the potential to be great, but the Titans shouldn’t be jumping at the chance to take a player that has the odds stacked against him. It makes much more sense (especially in a deep tight end class) to take a tight end on Day 2 if you want to add depth there, rather than spending a first on Hockenson.