Tennessee Titans: Why Sam Hubbard is a Day 3 pick
By Will Lomas
Why I don’t share the love for potential Tennessee Titans draft pick Sam Hubbard.
For a while now one of the easiest dots to connect is that the Tennessee Titans would have an interest in Ohio State EDGE, Sam Hubbard.
I am in the minority, but I don’t think Hubbard should be the Titans pick on either Day 1 or Day 2.
Let me explain what I value in a Day 1/2 pick. I think that player should either have really high upside, or they should be ready to play 75% of the snaps or more at an above average level.
I don’t think Hubbard will be that guy, but some people do. I tweeted this and got an interesting response.
I think you need to watch the tape on Hubbard. He has almost the same measurables as Bosa. And he is a lot more explosive and athletic on tape.
— Football & Other F Words (@FWordsPod) April 25, 2018
This is a strong statement, and Bosa was someone I loved two years ago. So, I decided to go back and try to look at Hubbard with a clean slate. Here is what I found:
Pros
Effort guy who always stays moving
This is what people love about Hubbard, always moving and giving effort. Makes a play from the backside despite a play design that should have made that impossible. Truly gives you 11 men working towards the ball #Titans https://t.co/wWFMfJpefZ
— Ran GMC(arthon) (@jlomas72) April 25, 2018
Nice Frame
There aren’t really any GIFs on this, but he is 6’5, 270 lb which is really solid for an EDGE prospect, especially if you want an every down defender in a 4-3.
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Familiarity
The Tennessee Titans coaching staff is going to know the ins and outs of Hubbard better than anyone. Kerry Coombs was on the coaching staff at OSU last year, so he has seen him grow and develop as a collegiate athlete.
On top of that, I believe that Mike Vrabel actually recruited and coached him for a year, so he should have a good feel on him as well.
If any staff is going to overdraft him based on the energy he may bring to practice and his effort on the field, it is the Titans…if Jon Robinson lets the coaching staff sway him.
Cons
Loses balance often
Some things I don't like about Hubbard. Firstly, he loses his balance or lets himself get driven out of plays more often than I like #Titans https://t.co/cGho2pJ21t
— Ran GMC(arthon) (@jlomas72) April 25, 2018
Here Hubbard takes a punch from the OT and loses his feet. #Titans https://t.co/386qxdKtIQ
— Ran GMC(arthon) (@jlomas72) April 25, 2018
Here Hubbard just outright falls and ends up grabbing onto the QBs leg, which does nothing and the QB passes for a touchdown. #Titans https://t.co/9vBCrHEGBc
— Ran GMC(arthon) (@jlomas72) April 25, 2018
This looks good, but because he can't/doesn't use his hands to disengage, when the QB scrambles the OL just rolls him up #Titans https://t.co/315Bt3hMYi
— Ran GMC(arthon) (@jlomas72) April 25, 2018
Not productive, and when he is it is because someone else screws up
Another big issue I have is that Hubbard wasn't very productive, and even those underwhelming stats were inflated by bad plays by other players. This was a middle screen that was never thrown #Titans https://t.co/So43N2L1Pc
— Ran GMC(arthon) (@jlomas72) April 25, 2018
This is a play where Hubbard is just completely unblocked. Complete botch by whoever was calling the protection leads to an easy splash play #Titans https://t.co/ihptkH3TSh
— Ran GMC(arthon) (@jlomas72) April 25, 2018
Here, it is a weird combination of the QB/RB read going wrong, AND a pulling guard who might as well have been moving in slow motion. #Titans https://t.co/WgbuUoQymZ
— Ran GMC(arthon) (@jlomas72) April 25, 2018
Not the athlete that you would think based on his testing
One more thing that bothers me is that Hubbard just doesn't look athletic enough to play on the EDGE consistently without a lot of help behind him. Watch him labor to the sideline here #Titans https://t.co/exIxEutuBS
— Ran GMC(arthon) (@jlomas72) April 25, 2018
Always had a Bosa to lean on
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There have been two years in Sam Hubbard’s career where he has had 6 or more sacks. The first season, was when teams started paying extra attention to Joey Bosa while he was on his way to becoming a top-5 pick in the 2016 NFL Draft.
The other one was last year where Nick Bosa was on the other side. Nick Bosa coincidentally had more sacks and TFLs than Hubbard last year, despite being a true sophomore.
And that is a HUGE part of understanding what Hubbard is. He is a complimentary EDGE player who needs a dominant player opposite him to be a real contributor. He is never going to be the guy that teams scheme against and say, “we have to stop that guy first.”
That is fine, but I don’t think that is someone worth a first round pick. Your first round players need to be guys who either can fill a major need, or players with a lot of potential down the road. I just don’t see that in Hubbard.
What do the number say?
I didn’t want to just go off my opinion though, so I contacted Jim Cobern and asked him to run Hubbard’s numbers vs Joey Bosa’s. This is what he came up with:
So Bosa is better in every category except explosion, and he was significantly more productive in college. That is a huge deal.
When it comes down to it, Ben Gardner is someone who showed a lot of the same athletic potential and production numbers as Sam Hubbard.
Gardner was more productive than Hubbard and still was only a 7th round draft pick, ultimately not sticking in the NFL.
All these factors just turn me off from Hubbard as the main guy brought in to fix the issue at EDGE. If the Titans bring in someone else and want him to be the future #2 guy, then fine but he just doesn’t make sense as a high pick to me based off of the tape or the data.