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Tennessee Titans should attack the 2018 NFL Draft in this order

By Will Lomas

ARLINGTON, TX - DECEMBER 29: (L-R) Damon Webb
ARLINGTON, TX - DECEMBER 29: (L-R) Damon Webb /
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What to expect for the Tennessee Titans in the first two days of the draft.

The Tennessee Titans needs are pretty clear at this point and with most of free agency over, it is time to start looking at the draft.

If you aren’t familiar, I would rank the Titans needs like this:

1A. EDGE

1B. LB

3. IOL

4. QB2

Now, I don’t really want to get into names I like or guys who could be there when the Titans pick, or at least not too much in depth. However, I do want us to get a better idea of what to expect when the Titans pick.

What I mean by that is, the Titans own a pick in each of the first three rounds, those picks are 25th, 57th and 89th.

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We all know that you aren’t going to get the best EDGE player at 25 in any draft. However, over the last five drafts you can get a pretty good job of whether you will get the 3rd or 6th best EDGE at that pick.

So what I did is I went back through the last five drafts and figured out which player you got on average at each of those four positions, in each of the first three rounds.

Let’s take a look at what I found:

Round 1, pick 25 here you can get:

-EDGE6

-LB3

-IOL3

-QB3

Now, I don’t expect the Titans to look at QB here, but it is interesting to note through this process. This feels about right in this class, especially at LB and EDGE. If I am looking at this, I don’t think there is any value in taking the 3rd best IOL with your first round pick.

Round 2, pick 57 here you can get:

-EDGE 10

-LB7

-IOL5

-QB4

This is why I want to take an EDGE in the first round, I just don’t know if you can settle on taking the 10th highest rated EDGE player when you know that you aren’t going to have Orakpo or Morgan after next year (at least until you re-sign them).

That would meant that you are planning on building the future of your defense on this player, Kevin Dodd and Tank Carraway. That just seems like bad planning and Jon Robinson has proven to be anything but incapable of planning for the future.

LB7 is also getting kind of steep, though if you look you can see some really good LBs have gone in the 2nd round the last few years so it makes less of an impact than you may think.

QB seemingly has good value, though this class will see more QBs go in round 1, but I still think this is way too early.

Round 3, pick 89 here you can get:

-EDGE15

-LB8

-IOL9

-QB5

Now here is where it gets interesting. Look at the difference in EDGE, roughly 5 come off the board per round. So really if you like a guy in your top 10 you probably need to spend a 1st or second round pick.

Also of note, look at LB. On average just one linebacker comes off the board between picks 57-89. That means that unless there is a huge cliff, LB is virtually the same value.

Several IOL come off the board and another one of those QBs come off the board.

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What does this all mean?

If you look at the averages and where players historically get taken in the NFL Draft, regardless of the Titans needs they should probably draft in this order:

Round 1: EDGE

Round 2: IOL

Round 3: LB

Day 3 priority: QB

For example, taking BPA at these positions in this draft looks like this on Fanspeak:

Round 1, pick 25: Marcus Davenport EDGE, UTSA (EDGE4 taken, +2 value)

-Supremely productive and very athletic (though maybe not the most athletic player in the draft, but still) and probably would fit the Titans well as a developmental pass rusher and a difference making starter in 2019.

Round 2, pick 57: James Daniels C/G, Iowa (IOL5 taken, exactly as projected)

-People swear that he will be gone buy here, but they also never thought that Forrest Lamp would fall out of the 1st round last year. He has all the athleticism you want in the position and looks like a very good starter.

The Titans don’t see overly committed to Josh Kline or Quinton Spain (which surprises me a little bit) so they could make a move here and just let the loser of that three man competition be a great depth player.

Round 3, pick 89: Jerome Baker LB, Ohio State (LB7 taken +1 value)

-This one kinda checks all the box, pretty solid athlete, started 26 games over the last two years and played at Ohio State. He isn’t going to fool anyone into thinking that he is the coverage linebacker on the Titans, but pairing him with Jayon Brown makes a lot of sense.

Round 4, pick 125: Luke Falk QB, Washington State (QB9, no projected value)

A really solid QB that put up really nice numbers and who could be a really interesting fit in a creative offensive system that understands how to utilize players correctly.

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