Odds three Tennessee Titans rookies hit rare milestone

CHICAGO, IL - NOVEMBER 27: Tajae Sharpe
CHICAGO, IL - NOVEMBER 27: Tajae Sharpe /

Why the Tennessee Titans may rewrite their history book this year.

The Tennessee Titans haven’t been around forever. In fact, few teams in the NFL are newer than the “Titans”.

Recently teams like the Chargers and Rams have moved around, but when you keep half of your name and your mascot it doesn’t feel like a wholesale change.

On the other hand, when you take the Houston Oilers, move them to a new state, change the mascot, and start off your new team by going on a Super Bowl run, it just makes the whole thing feel different.

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So, while the team has only been around for about 20 years in its most recent incarnation, that is still a lot of time. In that time, it shocked me to find out that only four rookies had ever had 500 yards in their first season.

I came across this stat here in this Jim Wyatt piece about Tajae Sharpe:

“A fifth-round pick from Massachusetts last year, Sharpe made a nice contribution in his rookie season. He played in all 16 games – with 10 starts – and hauled in 41 passes for 522 yards and two touchdowns.

He became one of four rookies in the ‘Titans era’ to tally at least 500 receiving yards.”

After reading that I had to wonder, how many Titans rookies could do that this year alone?

I decided that the easiest way to do this would be to break each option into their own specific odds.

Corey Davis: 90%

If Davis can stay healthy, I can’t imagine a scenario where he doesn’t top this number quickly.

Even if Davis struggles with the speed of the game early, his route running, athleticism, versatility, and size should all add up being a player that the Titans coaching staff draws up plays for.

With Marcus Mariota now having the ability to control plays at the line of scrimmage, look for guys that can create mismatches in a variety of ways to get more looks. That includes Davis.

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  • Taywan Taylor: 65%

    A few weeks ago I would have had Taylor at 40% for several reasons. Mainly, I thought Eric Decker would be the slot receiver and Taylor would only come in as a change of pace or gadget guy.

    Now I think that Decker is going to start off as the slot receiver, but I think that he will move all around the field.

    So you could see the following personnel groupings in four consecutive series:

    1. WR1: Davis, WR2: Matthews, SWR: Decker

    2. WR1: Matthews, WR2: Decker, SWR: Taylor

    3. WR1: Davis, WR2: Decker, SWR: Taylor

    4. WR1: Decker, WR2: Taylor, SWR: Davis

    Being able to move all of those pieces (except Matthews probably) into the slot depending on where your mismatches are is huge.

    Taylor could end up seeing 60% of the WR snaps at some position based on his speed and quick twitch, all he needs is one or two big games and a steady pace the rest of the season to top 500.

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    Jonnu Smith: 15%

    The stat includes running back and tight ends, and if this offense includes as many two tight end sets and people think then Smith is going to see the field often.

    This one is a low percentage because I think if you are going to put a TE in a route then you want it to be Delanie Walker.

    Having said that, if Mariota goes empty and has Smith inline and has Walker as an extra slot receiver, then Smith is going to be covered by the defense’s fifth best cover man. He should be able to win that match up consistently.

    With Walker being older, I could see him taking less reps this year especially if the Titans are going to the post season. If that happens, this team could definitely see a lot of Jonnu Smith.