How high should Tennessee Titans expectations be for Corey Davis

What should Tennessee Titans expect from rookie WR Corey Davis.

Vegas knows. That saying carries a lot of weight once you see how often they nail projections months ahead of time. So, what do they know about Tennessee Titans rookie wide receiver Corey Davis?

Well, according to Bovada via Jason Wolf, they expect Corey Davis to hit somewhere around 750 yards in his rookie year:

Now, at first glance that doesn’t look like a lot. So, let’s look at see how often that mark has been hit in the past.

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Rookie receivers with 750+ yards per year since 2011:

2016: 1 (Michael Thomas)

2015: 1 (Amari Cooper)

2014: 6 (Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin, Sammy Watkins, Jordan Matthews, Jarvis Landry)

2013: 2 (Keenan Allen, DeAndre Hopkins)

2012: 3 (Justin Blackmon, T.Y. Hilton, Josh Gordon)

2011: 4 (A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Torrey Smith, Doug Baldwin)

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So the good news is that it has happened every single year in the NFL. The majority of the players to do it were first round picks (9 of 17).

So there is definitely a precedent of this happening often.

The bad news is, it has only happened twice in the last two years and both offenses were very pass heavy teams. Drew Brees was putting up his standard 5,000 yard season and Amari Cooper was the backbone of the Oakland Raiders offense.

Will Corey Davis be that big of an influence on the Tennessee Titans? Yes, I believe so. However, they have options now.

The Titans aren’t the Texans who have one way to move the ball (spray and pray) and they aren’t a spread-you-out team either. They are going to beat your head in with a physical running game, then when you start trying to cheat that you better hope your DBs can cover 1-on-1.

So, if the Titans get a loaded box and Corey Davis gets the CB1, are you telling me you don’t think Rishard Matthews won’t toast the other CB? Or that Taywan Taylor won’t blow past a slot CB? Or that a safety or linebacker will come out of run/deep help to cover Delanie Walker 1-on-1?

Then you run the risk of Marcus Mariota letting you turn your back to him and then gashing you for a 20-yard gain on the ground. This offense suddenly has too many weapons and all of them fit this offense.

Having said that and knowing the knack Corey Davis has for turning curls/screens into 70-yard TDs, I see him getting much closer to 1,000 yards than 750 this year. The point is it isn’t just cut and dry.

Will the Tennessee Titans be so methodical on offense that once Corey Davis is established they will take defenses apart in other ways? I think they could be, and I know Marcus Mariota is good enough to adapt to whatever the team needs to win games.

However, no matter what they do I imagine from here on out that Corey Davis is going to get fed a lot. He can take advantage of any CB thanks to his size, speed, technique, and position versatility, so he will always find a way to make himself the primary target in this offense.