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Tennessee Titans draft, the injury question

By Will Lomas

Mar 5, 2017; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide defensive lineman Jonathan Allen goes through workout drills during the 2017 NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 5, 2017; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide defensive lineman Jonathan Allen goes through workout drills during the 2017 NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports /
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Why some injuries should matter more than others to the Tennessee Titans.

I want to preface this by saying that I am not a doctor. Now that we have that out of the way, let’s talk about injuries.

When I am grading draft prospects, I try to stay away from injuries because I don’t have the expertise to diagnose or the access to medical records to really understand exactly the depth and severity of certain issues.

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However, there are a lot of times where you have to take it into account. I like to think that there are three types of injuries:

1. Career threatening injuries. Things like cartilage damage, spine issues, severe damage to knees, arthritis, chronic injuries, etc.

2. Rookie threatening injures. These are things like Jake Butt’s late ACL tear and Sidney Jones tearing his Achilles.

3. Minor injuries. Things that knocked players out of games, but don’t scare me long term. Jalen Tabor had a back injury a few years ago that caused him to miss one game, that would fall under this category.

Now, there are times where a player can have more than one of these issues. However, the majority of players that are draftable only have one or maybe 3 in addition to either 1 or 2.

This is all a preface to say that I believe that Jon Allen shouldn’t be the Tennessee Titans pick at 5.

According to CBS Chicago, Allen has arthrtis in both shoulders after pair of surgeries:

“A projected top-five pick in April’s draft, the 22-year-old Allen has undergone surgery for labral tears in both shoulders, which left him with a moderate case of arthritis, as first documented by Pro Football Talk. Such a condition may remain through his entire NFL career.”

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    • Now, I don’t know how bad that is but the public perception, including some by NFL pundits makes it sound like it is something that should drop him down boards.

    If Allen was a true pass rushing EDGE player then maybe I would be alright with the Tennessee Titans drafting him. However, the fact is that he would likely end up playing 3-4 DE in this scheme.

    For reference outside of J.J. Watt who plays all over the defensive line, here are the highest paid 3-4 DEs in the NFL according to OTC:

    1. Mo Wilkerson, NYJ

    2. Cameron Hayward, Pittsburgh Steelers

    3. Corey Liuget, L.A. Chargers

    4. Mike Daniels, Green Bay Packers

    5. Kyle Williams, Buffalo Bills

    How many true difference makers are on that list? 1 in Wilkerson? You might be able to stretch it and say Daniels or Hayward maybe.

    That list is the absolute ceiling for Allen at that position. Is someone with long-term injury concerns at that position really worth taking that high in the draft? I would say no.

    Now, compare this to Marshon Lattimore. The Ohio State cornerback has major hamstring injuries.

    He missed his entire freshman year and then missed some games his redshirt freshman year to hamstring injuries as well. Finally he played 13 games his final year in college, where he did still struggle with some hamstring issues.

    However, despite an incorrect rumor he closed the season strong and has had no hamstring injuries since then.

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    If you are going to take a prospect in the top 5 of this draft with injuries, it has to be him. Even if he struggles sometimes with injuries it has never affected his athleticism and he showed that at the combine.

    Just like we did with Allen, look at the highest paid CBs in the NFL:

    1. Trumaine Johnson, LA Rams

    2. Josh Norman, Washington Redskins

    3. Patrick Peterson, Arizona Cardinals

    4. Richard Sherman, Seattle Seahawks

    5. Desmond Trufant, Atlanta Falcons

    Now that is a ceiling that I can get on board with.

    I would probably say that after looking in to it, both of these guys have injuries that I would probably rank in the “1” category from earlier. So if all things are equal, I can’t take Allen but I can take Lattimore, here is why.

    I truly believe that both of these prospects have the potential to be perennial pro-bowl players at their positions. However, I would be willing to risk a top-5 pick for the upside of a top-end cornerback. I wouldn’t risk it for a top end 5-tech, as much as I truly like Jonathan Allen.

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