After a very average first week, Jorge stepped it up in Week 4 going 4-1, with the only loss coming on the Titans money line. Obviously it wasn’t a great bet because it was wrong, but if you’re taking a +185 money line, you only have to be correct 35% of the time to break even. The season total is now a not-great-but-respectable 6-4, and there’s no doubt in my mind that it’s only getting better this week. The Bengals and Steelers will roll, the Chargers get back on track, and the Titans… who the heck knows.
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Titans at Dolphins
Spread: Miami -3.5
Money Line: +160/-180
Well… I’m 0-2 on the Titans game so far, and 6-2 on all others, so my advice here is to do the opposite of what I say, but my gut tells me to take the Titans to win… Again… The teams that the Titans have lost to are a combined 9-3 through week 4, while the Dolphins are, well, just pretty bad. Ryan Tannehill might be the worst QB in the league, and I would also assume home field advantage won’t be as advantageous this week with the potential terrible weather in South Florida. I would get this bet in early, as a change in location would swing the line back more neutral.
Bengals at Cowboys
Spread: Bengals -1
Money Line: -115/-105
I really like the Bengals here. I think their defense continues to improve, especially now that Vontaze Burfict has a game under his belt, and I think that AJ Green will cause some serious issues for this Cowboys defense. Blaine Gabbert and the super not scary 49ers offense gave the Cowboys a bit of a scare last Sunday, and I think the Bengals continue to pick up steam and play well. Dak Prescott has yet to throw an interception this season, and while I can’t help but to root for him, I would love to see the Titans infamous former cornerback Pacman Jones take a pick to the house, for old time’s sake.
Chargers at Raiders
Spread: Raiders -3.5
Money Line: +165/-185
The Chargers and Raiders have had polar opposite seasons so far, with the Raiders scoring come from behind TD’s late in games to win twice this season, and the Chargers have absolutely tanked several times, giving up a 21-point lead against Kansas City and a 13 point lead in the 4th quarter this past Sunday to blow a game against the Saints. While the Raiders are and should be the favorites in this game, I really like the Chargers on the money line here. Rivers is undoubtedly one of the best QBs in the league and +165 is very generous for a team with a high ceiling, playing a team with vulnerabilities. Go Bolts baby.
Jets at Steelers
Spread: Steelers -7
Money Line: +270/-330
If Ryan Fitzpatrick had been playing well, I’d feel differently about this one. But then again, if Fitzpatrick had been playing well, it wouldn’t be a 7 point spread. With Le’Veon Bell back in the lineup and looking as good as ever, the Steelers offense clicked last week, unleashing the hammer of Thor on the Chiefs defense that held this Jets team to 3 points. I would love to see Darrelle Revis look like his 2012 self, because there’s nothing like a match up between a top receiver like Antonio Brown and a dominant corner, like Revis used to be. But I don’t think Revis will even lineup across from AB on Sunday. I think the Steelers cover.
Bears at Colts
Spread: Colts -4.5
Money Line: +190/-220
It’s now or never for this Colts team, and while they have a glaring weakness on their offensive line, the Bears have not been able to get to the QB this season (they’re tied for 24th in sacks along with our Titans). Brian Hoyer can’t throw the ball down the field, which is what this offense is built for with Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal, and Jeremy Langford is out with a high ankle sprain. The Colts cover on Sunday and a 1-4 Bears team might not be welcome back in Chicago.