For the last two weeks I have been going into the Tennessee Titans preseason games blind. Meaning, I didn’t really look closely at the practices and/or games of the teams that they had to face.
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However, this week I decided to do something different given the stylistic matchup of the Titans vs the Oakland Raiders. Specifically, I looked at running yards per game.
The Oakland Raiders have allowed a 158.5 yards per game making them the 4th worst rush defense in the league so far this preseason. On top of that, the gap between them and 5th place was a whopping 20 YPG. Contrast that to the distance between them and 2nd worst rush defense in the league (the San Diego Chargers with 175.5) and you see that this team is really close to being in that bottom-two class.
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On the other hand, the Tennessee Titans are 2nd in the league in rushing yards per game with 192 YPG. Even more impressive is that an insane 35% of their carries this year have gone for 1st downs and they average a league high 6.7 yards per carry.
So I think it is safe to say that the Titans are going to follow the model that the teams before them have this preseason and try to run the ball straight at the Oakland Raiders defense.
I know that the coaches haven’t scouted this team, but I would be very surprised if they haven’t at least watched the tape of the players they are going against. I took a quick look and here is what I found out.
-In the first half of the game, the Packers ran the ball 16 times for 70 yards and a touchdown.
-They blocked out of three personnel packages if you don’t worry about the fullback. Those were 5 OL, 5 OL + 1 TE and 5 OL and 2 TEs.
-Their least successful was actually the one package they scored a TD out of which was the 2 TE package. They actually averaged 0 yards on 4 runs from that package, but like I said they managed a one-yard TD.
-They ran it most often out of 1 TE. There they had a lot of success rushing for 41 yards on 9 carries. They also had their longest run from this package, a 24-yard scamper.
-The most successful package was the no TE package where they ran just 3 times, but had no negative rushes and averaged 9.7 yards per carry.
So, if the Titans take any note of this, I wonder if they will follow the packers lead and let Marcus Mariota call the offense with no tight ends and with Jalston Fowler on the field to give the real threat of the running game.
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The Titans could also go with a lineup of Fowler and Delanie Walker who could be a makeshift slot receiver that can come in as a TE and give the team a heavier package in a hurry-up offense.
However, the most important wrinkle we could see is Dennis Kelly coming in as the 6th OL. I think that is something that we are poised to see sooner rather than later given all the reverses and misdirection plays that we have seen from the Titans so far.
With two hammers in DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry I believe the Titans will use this package plus a tight end on goal-to-go situations. Partly because they want to be physical, but also because the Titans have been running trick plays all season, why shouldn’t we expect a throw back to the 6’8 Dennis Kelly to be in the playbook by now?