I just posted a story about Tony Pauline throwing a new team in the mix for the 1st overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft.
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The New York Jets have reportedly considered trading up with the Titans for that top pick, and have gone as far to have a conversation with Tennessee about that. Reportedly the concern is that the Jets just don’t have the assets to trade up from 20 all the way to number 1.
Those are very real concerns, I mean no conversation could really start without the Jets including both their first pick in the 2016 NFL Draft and in 2017 as well. However, if they are willing to part with those then I believe there is a way to make this move.
Here is what I would suggest for both teams using the Drafttek trade chart:
New York Jets receive
-1st pick in the 2016 NFL Draft (3,000 points)
Tennessee Titans receive
-20th pick in the 2016 NFL Draft (850 points)
-51st pick (2nd round) in the 2016 NFL Draft (390 points)
-1st round pick in the 2017 NFL Draft (800 points)
-Muhammad Wilkerson (1,000 points)
FanSided
How did you get those numbers?
-If you click on the link above you get the value for each pick which is where I got the value for the picks in the 2016 NFL Draft.
-The future first round pick is based on the 21st pick in the 2016 NFL Draft because I don’t think the Jets would make this move if they didn’t think it would help them both long and short term. For the Jets that would likely mean making the playoffs next year and 21 is the lowest pick you can get while making the playoffs.
-Wilkerson was more tricky and is the least firm. If he was under contract for a decent amount he would probably me closer to a top-5 pick, but since he is on a franchise tag deal for just one year this whole deal is contingent on the idea that he will have to sign a big long-term contract with Tennessee which decreases his value a lot.
What precedent did I use?
Well, I obviously wanted to get fair value by using the trade chart I mentioned above. However, as far as a precedent of this happening in the past, I used the Atlanta Falcons trade with the Cleveland Browns to move up and grab Julio Jones.
In that trade there was two firsts, two fourths and a second that changed hands and that was to move up from 27th to 6th, not even all the way up to 1st. So I new that the minimum starting point was two 1sts.
I also knew that the Titans needed to make sure they somehow got an elite player to substitute the value they would have gotten from their current 1st which is why Mo Wilkerson was a must.
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What do the Titans look like now?
Alright, so if this move is made the Titans now have the best 3-4 defensive line in the league, and I don’t think that is an exaggeration. The front three is comprises of Jurrell Casey and Wilkerson, two Pro-Bowl caliber 5-techs.
On top of that, they now have three picks in the top 51 (20th, 33rd, 51st) to add some very good value. I even believe that they could move down with that 33rd pick and get two 2nd round picks from the New England Patriots which I explained in that link, but I won’t mock that.
So, let’s mock out what this draft could look like using the fine folks at Fanspeak’s draft simulator. Going in I know I have needs at RT, DB and WR, so let’s see what happens.
20th: Taylor Decker OT, Ohio State
I think he is one of the most complete tackles in this class from a technique standpoint and there is really no reason that the Titans couldn’t have he and Taylor Lewan compete for left tackle and the 1B of the two move over to right tackle.
33rd: Josh Doctson WR, TCU
A huge target I have been a huge fan of since mid December just falls into the Titans hands as they wait to take advantage of a very deep DB class in the 2016 NFL Draft.
51st: Vonn Bell S, Ohio State
Vonn Bell is a smart, veteran player who has been highly successful on the highest stage of college football. He would be a great fit for what Dick LeBeau is trying to build on that defense as the true single high safety on that team.
Bonus: Su’a Cravens S/LB, USC
The player I would have taken with the next pick is Cravens. He would be a great hybrid player in Dick LeBeau’s scheme who could be a great fifth DB/3rd LB that never leaves the field but just changes rolls. It would make LeBeau’s scheme work so much better and it would give them more athleticism in that LB group on base downs.
Again, on top of that the Titans get a future 1st round pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. If this quarterback doesn’t pan out the Titans could easily end up with a top-12 pick in a tough division that has gotten tougher this offseason.
That could result in them taking an elite edge player (like Carl Lawson, Myles Garrett or Derek Barnett), a great running back, a talented wide receiver, or one of the explosive hybrid DBs like Adore Jackson or Jabrill Peppers.