It looks like the AFC South is a bit more competitive than expected. The Tennessee Titans dominated the Bengals in a 27-3 win last week to get to 2-2, in a tie with the Indianapolis Colts who nearly got their third win in Week 4. The Colts took the Rams to overtime but lost 29-23. There is a four-way tie at 2-2 in the division.
The logjam will be broken up this week by this divisional matchup. and I’ll get into the odds and my pick below. For a look at every game on the Week 5 slate, check out Iain MacMillan’s “Road to 272” where he picks every game of the NFL season.
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Titans vs. Colts odds, spread and total
Colts vs. Titans Betting Trends
- Colts are 2-2 ATS
- The OVER is 3-1 in Colts games
- Titans are 3-1 ATS
- The UNDER is 3-1 in Titans games
Titans vs. Colts injury reports
Titans injury report
- Treylon Burks - WR - questionable (knee)
- Luke Gifford - LB - questionable (hamstring)
- Elijah Molden - CB - questionable (hamstring)
- Peter Skoronski - OL - questionable (appendix)
- Will Levis - QB - questionable (quadricep)
- Kyle Philips - WR - questionable (knee)
- Mike Brown - S - IR (lower Body)
Colts injury report
- Bernhard Raimann - OT - questionable (concussion)
- Sam Ehlinger - QB - questionable (shoulder)
- Ryan Kelly - C - questionable (concussion)
- Evan Hull - RB - IR (knee)
- Jelani Woods - TE - IR (hamstring)
- Danny Pinter - G - IR (ankle)
- T. Leo DE - IR (undisclosed)
- Jonathan Taylor - RB - Out (ankle)
Titans vs. Colts how to watch
- Date: Sunday, October 8
- Time: 1:00 PM EST
- Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
- How to Watch (TV): CBS
- Titans Record: 2-2
- Colts Record: 2-2
Titans vs. Colts key players to watch
Titans
Derrick Henry, RB: It’s clear that the Titans can’t trust their quarterback situation very much. Ryan Tannehill is struggling with turnovers and Malik Willis and Will Levis aren’t ready yet. So, as always, the offense is built around Henry. Last week in their blowout win over Cincinnati, Henry ran for 122 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. He also threw as many touchdown passes as Tannehill, going 1/1 for two yards and a score.
Colts
Anthony Richardson, QB: This season for the Colts is all about developing their young quarterback, but they’re having some success along the way. Last week, Richardson led them back from a 23-0 deficit, scoring 23 unanswered in the third and fourth quarters, only to lose in overtime. Still, it was very encouraging from the young QB who went 11/25 for 200 yards and two touchdowns while running for 56 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries.
Titans vs. Colts prediction and pick
Both the Colts and the Titans have the same strengths and the same weaknesses. Both teams are very weak in the defensive secondary. Indianapolis ranks 28th in pass defense and 25th in yards per attempt while Tennessee is 23rd in pass defense and 26th in yards per attempt. Neither team can stop the pass, and both are strong against the run, ranking ninth and first in yards per rush allowed respectively.
I’m not sure which team is going to do a worse job exploiting the other's weaknesses. Obviously, both are run-first offensive teams, Indy with a dynamic dual-threat quarterback, and Tennessee with Derrick Henry. The Colts are 18th in passing offense, which is a good sign, but they’re 27th in completion percentage and rely largely on big plays. It could be difficult to string together drives if they cannot run for important first downs.
The Titans are similar offensively, they are 13th in yards per completion, but 28th in passing offense. They throw the ball sparingly and when they do they hope to hit on explosive plays.
Maybe those explosive plays will hit, but I expect this game to be more of a slog, with both offenses desperately trying to establish the run with little success. That will keep the clock ticking and make the under a viable bet. The under is 7-3 in Tennessee’s last 10 games.
Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change