The offseason heading into the 2024 season has been a transitional one for the Tennessee Titans. The franchise relieved Mike Vrabel of his duties, giving general manager Ran Carthon his first opportunity to hire a head coach of his choosing. Carthon landed on former Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan, who is expected to usher the Titans' offense into the current century.
Gone are mainstays Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry, too. The Titans are embracing Will Levis as their franchise quarterback of the present and (hopefully) future. It turns out all this change has the national media foreseeing a difficult campaign for the Titans in 2024.
ESPN recently released their projections for the 2025 NFL draft order. Their in-house analyst Jordan Reid took to social media to point out that the Titans rank 27th in their latest Football Power Index (FPI) Rankings.
Latest ESPN Football Power Index Rankings.
— Jordan Reid (@Jordan_Reid) June 2, 2024
Way-too-early predicted top 5 draft order for 2025 (as of today):
1. Panthers
2. Patriots
3. Broncos
4. Giants
5. Commanders pic.twitter.com/HT2fwiUWqj
ESPN uses the FPI to project the draft order by simulating the upcoming season 10,000 different times. Their explanation claims that game probabilities are based largely on the model's ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations (home versus away games). The draft order is based on the records the model believes the teams will have after 17 games and each team's average draft position in the simulations.
The Titans captured the No. 4 overall selection in the 2025 NFL Draft after 10,000 simulations. Tennessee's average draft position was 9.1, indicating a range of outcomes. FPI estimates the Titans possess a 7.4% chance to earn the top overall pick, a 36.7% chance to claim a top-five selection, and a whopping 65.1% chance to pick within the top 10.
Titans fans have significantly higher expectations. Together, Carthon and Callahan believe in Levis' ability to develop into a top 10 NFL quarterback. Tennessee's decision makers showcased their faith in Levis by acquiring Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd at wide receiver. Other major offseason acquisitions include rookie offensive tackle J.C. Latham, cornerbacks L'Jarius Sneed and Chido Awuzie, running back Tony Pollard, and center Lloyd Cushenberry, among others.
If Levis is the quarterback the Titans think he is, the team should come nowhere near earning the No. 4 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.