Contract expert lays the framework for a Tennessee Titans, DeAndre Hopkins deal

Los Angeles Chargers v Arizona Cardinals
Los Angeles Chargers v Arizona Cardinals / Christian Petersen/GettyImages
facebooktwitterreddit

The Tennessee Titans are doing everything they can to sell DeAndre Hopkins on moving to Nashville and becoming a key part of this offense.

According to his own Instagram account, Hopkins arrived in Nashville on Sunday night where he took in the spectacle that is CMA Fest. While we aren't getting a full play-by-play on the itinerary for Hopkins, it seems like he is still in town, and on Monday morning the New England Patriots didn't sound sure that they were going to get a visit with the All-Pro.

For now, it certainly seems like the Tennessee Titans are the team to beat for Hopkins and if you have any desire to see the 2023 version of the Titans compete for a playoff spot then you should be begging Ran Carthon and Mike Vrabel not to let him get on a plane without a deal.

However, as soon as the idea of actually signing Hopkins gets brought up, some fans seem to clutch their pearls at the idea of signing a player who could be the next Julio Jones, Andre Johnson, or Randy Moss.

While it is fair to be concerned about his age, Hopkins shouldn't be viewed as a big risk to miss a lot of games. For example, when you take out the six games that he missed in 2022 for a suspension, over the last two years Hopkins has played in about 70% of his games. To compare, Derrick Henry has played in 71% of his games over the last two years.

Expecting the Titans to run their offense through one of those 30+ year old players but thinking that the other one is made out of glass doesn't make sense.

Beyond availability, the other big concern is his contract so let's talk about what a contract could actually look like.

Do the Tennessee Titans have to break the bank for Nuk Hopkins

Ramon, Kayla & Will of 104.5 the Zone in Nashville, had Michael Ginnitti of Spotrac on their show on Monday morning to discuss what a contract should look like.

The clip is listed above, but Ginnitti brings up a very interesting point about halfway through that portion of the audio. He says that over the last six seasons between June and September, the highest guarantee on any free-agent contract is $9 million.

Maybe that changes because of how talented Hopkins is, but by now most teams have already started to sell themselves on the guys that they have.

Later in the clip, he goes on to say that a deal for 2 years/$20 million with $10 million guaranteed makes a lot of sense for someone as talented as Hopkins during this time of year.

Tennessee Titans fans should be ecstatic if that is a deal that they can get done with Hopkins. Let's say that over the next two seasons Hopkins plays 70% of the games and he stays in the 68 yards per game (his rate over the last two years).

That means that by the end of 2024 Hopkins will have had 1,600 yards over a 24-game period for the Tennessee Titans instead of the 900 yards that Nick Westbrook-Ikhine would have had if he had played every single game.

It also means that it gives Ran Carthon and Mike Vrabel a chance to rebuild the roster over the next two years with the majority of the offense already set in stone. This is a no-brainer at this cost, and even if it costs a little more than that projection it is still a signing that would be huge for this team short-term and long-term.