What trade makes sense for both teams?
This is always the hard part of these projected deals, but the fact that we know that Miller is on the trade block means that he will likely be available for cheap.
Since there have been rumors of the Bears shopping him for a month, I don’t think there is any chance that anyone pays a top-100 pick for him. Any trade conversation is going to have to start with a Day 3 pick.
The Titans currently have five picks on Day 3 (one 4th, one 5th, two 6ths, and one 7th) and there are two important things to remember about Jon Robinson.
First, Robinson hates 4th round picks. Well, hates is a strong word, maybe it is more reasonable to say that he seems to think that 4th round picks have more value on the trade market than they do practically.
In five drafts, the Titans have only used a 4th round pick once and the rest have been traded, including the trades for the players I mentioned earlier (Tannehill and Murray).
The other thing to remember is that Robinson really doesn’t like giving up draft picks and would rather swap picks when possible.
Let’s say that the Titans and Bears agree that a “5th round value” is fair for Miller. Using that information about what Robinson likes to do in trades and the Rich Hill trade value chart, how about this proposal.
The Titans receive: Anthony Miller, a 5th round pick (164), and a 6th round pick (204)
The Bears receive: a 4th round pick (126)
Using the value chart, that equates Miller’s value to a pick in the middle of the 5th round.
Right now the Bears don’t have a 4th round pick at all, so this means head into the 2021 NFL Draft with four picks in the top-130 instead of three picks inside the top-160.
The Titans fill one of their biggest need positions of need ahead of the draft and aren’t forced into using a top-100 pick on a receiver if they think there is clear value somewhere else. It also gives them more freedom to trade around in the draft because they would have 10 picks including four inside the top-100.
That seems like a win-win for everyone.