Party Math Time
Let’s start with the good stuff, right now Derrick Henry sits at a monstrous 1,532 yards this season with three games left to play. Over the course of the 2020 season, Henry has career highs in yards per game (117.6) and yards per attempt (5.2).
So this isn’t a case of Henry just getting more volume, while he is getting more rushes he is also doing more with them.
If these numbers hold for the next three games, Henry would actually fall short of 2,000. He would end the season with 1,885 yards which would still be outstanding, but obviously, that isn’t the goal.
The other way to look at those numbers is to look at how many carries it would take him to get to 2,000 yards. At 5.2 yards per attempt, it would take Henry 30 attempts per game (90 total) to reach his goal.
That isn’t impossible, but it is still a massive workload if you are just counting on more volume being the answer to this problem. Luckily, there is a good reason to think that Henry will outdo his average down this final stretch.