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Tracking Derrick Henry’s progress towards 2,000 yards

By Will Lomas

Nov 12, 2020; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry (22) runs onto the field during the first half against the Indianapolis Colts at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 12, 2020; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry (22) runs onto the field during the first half against the Indianapolis Colts at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports /
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Titans star RB Derrick Henry
Oct 18, 2020; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry (22) celebrates as he leaves the field after scoring the winning touchdown in overtime against the Houston Texans at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports /

What’s next?

Nothing is easy in the NFL, especially when you have someone trying to achieve greatness like Derrick Henry is doing.

In November, there were three numbers I took note of when trying to figure out if Henry could crack 2k.

1. How many rushing yards are the defenses left on the schedule allowing per game? (116.5 rushing yards allowed per game)

2. How many yards above that average would Henry need to hit to get to 2,000 yards? (Henry would need 28 yards more than the average yards allowed to hit 2,000)

3. Based on his average yards per carry, how many rushes would he need per game to get to 2,000 yards based on his level of play? (he needed 31 rushes per game over the next 8 weeks)

That was before this three-game stretch. So, with nearly a month more information and new rushing totals for Henry, I am going to revisit those numbers again.

1. How many rushing yards are the defenses left on the schedule allowing per game?

-The Titans’ toughest task will be the Cleveland Browns who are one of the best teams in the league in stopping the run (9th best) and running the ball themselves. However, after that, they do get to play the Houston Texans (31st), Jacksonville Jaguars (29th), Detroit Lions (28th), and Green Bay Packers (13th). On average they are allowing 129.4 rushing yards per game.

2. How many yards above that average would Henry need to hit to get to 2,000 yards?

-Derrick Henry needs to average 148.6 yards per game to get to 2,000 yards, which means that his number here has actually gone down. Now he only needs 19.2 yards per game more than the average to hit his target.

3. Based on his average yards per carry, how many rushes would he need per game to get to 2,000 yards based on his level of play?

-This number is surprisingly unchanged with Henry still needing to run the ball 30.3 times per game to get to that magic number.

Can he do it? Absolutely, but there is no step in this journey that will be easy and if he is going to set his sights on this then excellence has to be the standard. Can this team get him to 2,000? We will find out soon enough.

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