Corey Davis will keep having success once A.J. Brown returns for Titans

Corey Davis with/without A.J. Brown

In the two-game sample size that we have with Corey Davis as the WR1 this season, he ended up with 8 catches on 11 targets for 105 yards and a touchdown.

Looking at the total numbers on offense, that means that over this stretch he ended up with an 18% market share of the targets in the passing game. Compare that to last season with Ryan Tannehill as the starter, and you would be right in thinking that this has led to an increase in his market share of the targets. In 2019 his target share was 16.7% (42 of 251), but here is where the wrinkle comes in.

We have actually seen Corey Davis as the WR2 in this offense way back in Week 1 vs the Denver Broncos. Now you could argue that A.J. Brown was playing hurt, but that doesn’t change how the defense was covering both targets (more on that later).

In that game, Davis had 7 receptions on 8 targets and 101 yards. At the end of the night, he actually had an 18.6% market share of the targets in that game, the same number as A.J. Brown.

So what do those numbers mean? It is a small sample size, but to me, those numbers mean that:

-In 2019 the Titans didn’t think that Corey Davis was winning his matchups enough so he was only getting 16.7% of the targets.

-When everyone was healthy in 2020, Davis was able to beat his matchup as frequently than A.J. Brown was and he was rewarded with 18.6% of the targets.

-After Brown was hurt, Davis was still winning his matchups enough to warrant 18% of the targets, but he didn’t have as much of an impact in terms of yards because of the defense focusing more on him.