2019 Season: 52 Catches, 84 Targets, 1,051 Yards, 8 Touchdowns
2020 Prediction: 68 Catches, 103 Targets, 1,117 Yards, 7 Touchdowns
It took AJ Brown all of one game as a pro to make his name with the Tennessee Titans, ending his NFL debut with a 100-yard game on only three catches. That low volume, high payout style of play would set the tone for Brown’s entire rookie season.
Despite finishing 24th in the NFL in receiving yards in 2019, Brown placed outside the top 60 in terms of receptions and targets. Doing so much with so little is a testament to just how good Brown is, as well as to what his role is within the Tennessee offense.
As is clear by now, the Titans are a run-first team that used their receivers sparingly, even the ones as talented as Brown. While I expect his workload in the offense to go up now that Tennessee knows exactly how talented Brown is, I would expect the number of targets and catches he’ll get to remain low for a player of his caliber.
However, Brown’s gaudy production from 2019 might stay consistent heading into 2020. Brown is already one of the best receivers in the league after the catch and manages to free up a good bit of space before the catch as well, thanks to his quick release and his ability to blow past single coverage in a play-action heavy passing attack. Brown can take quick throws to the house (like he did against Atlanta) and turn deep-ball throws into 91-yard scoring plays (like he did against Oakland).
1,100 yards off of 68 catches might seem like a lot. But that’s just the kind of player Brown is.