What would it cost to make that jump?
You have probably seen that pick value table that so many former GMs and scouts talk about, the Jimmy Johnson trade chart.
Well, it turns out that those charts are way out of date and the best model to figure out true value now is to use what is called the Rich Hill model.
Looking at the Tennessee Titans picks, these are the value for each pick they currently have in this model:
29 (1st round): 203 points
61 (2nd): 86
93 (3rd): 42
174 (5th): 7
224 (7th): 2
237 (7th): 1
243 (7th): 1
The pick in question from the Las Vegas Raiders would be 19th overall which carries a value of 278 points.
Quick math says that the Titans top two picks would that pick and then some. So after playing around with the numbers, this is a deal that makes sense for everyone on that chart:
Titans trade a 1st, 2nd and 5th, two 7th round picks (237 and 243) for the Raiders 1st and 4th round picks.
That gives the Raiders two 7th round picks which is good because they currently don’t have a pick after 159th overall (5th round). This trade gives them three which will help with depth and give them more flexibility.
Overall the trade ends up being in favor of the Titans by a “score” of 399-397, but the Raiders want that second round pick and they also get plenty of Day 3 picks.