Titans vs. Chiefs betting guide: Odds, weather, injuries, analysis

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images) /

The underdog Tennessee Titans will face the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game with a berth in the Super Bowl on the line.

The Tennessee Titans have strung together two straight victories in the playoffs, the latest being over the top-seeded Baltimore Ravens, to secure an improbable berth in the AFC Championship game.

On the other side of the field, the Kansas City Chiefs overcame a 24-0 deficit against the Houston Texans in the divisional round to win 51-31 as they roll into their second consecutive AFC Championship Game.

The Titans and Chiefs faced off earlier in the season, with the Titans pulling out a thrilling 35-32 victory at home. While Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw for over 400 yards and three touchdowns, Titans running back Derrick Henry ran for over 180 yards and two touchdowns.

The two teams will take the field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City at 2:05 P.M. CST on CBS to see who will reach the Super Bowl.

Titans vs Chiefs: Betting odds and lines

The Titans are on the road again, opening as 7.5-point underdogs, courtesy of The Action Network. The line has since moved with the Titans current sitting as 7-point underdogs. The Titans covered a 10-point line last week against the Ravens.

The Titans (+285) are massive underdogs yet again in these playoffs as the Chiefs (-370) are expected to hold at home. Subsequently, the Titans (+700) sit with the longest odds to win the Super Bowl.

The Titans have been rock stars against the spread this season. The Titans are 5-0 on the road against the spread in the last five games, while 7-2 in their last nine games overall. The Chiefs are also holding strong at 5-0-1 in the last six games against the spread.

The Titans and Chiefs faced off in a matchup earlier in the season that had the Chiefs as a 6-point favorite. The Titans covered the spread and money line in a 35-32 victory at home.

The over/under is at a high 53 points, showing that the oddsmakers believe this game will be a shootout. The Chiefs were sixth in the NFL in scoring offense, while the Titans were 12th. The Titans have gone “OVER” nine out of the last 12 games but were “UNDER” last week by holding the Ravens to only 12 points.


The Titans are expected to see a frigid Sunday afternoon game in Kansas City, as the temperature is expected to be in the 20’s but feel like it’s in the teens, per NFLWeather.com. The skies are expected to be clear and winds should be around nine MPH, which could potentially affect the kicking game

Key Injuries

The Titans are getting positive news this week with WR Adam Humphries (ankle) returning to practice after missing the last six games with an ankle injury. If Humphries is able to return, he adds an extra weapon in the passing game. It’s important to note that Humphries scored the game-winning touchdown against the Chiefs in Week 10.

Another key piece is LB Jayon Brown (shoulder), who returned to practice this week after sitting out the Ravens game. If Brown can return healthy, he will be instrumental in the Titans’ ability to stop Chiefs TE Travis Kelce.

The Chiefs are also dealing with some ailments. Both RB LeSean McCoy and DT Chris Jones, missed the Texans game and have yet to practice this week. Jones in particular is a huge piece to a Chiefs defense trying to stop Derrick Henry. CB Kendall Fuller and Kelce both appeared on the injury report earlier in the week but are expected to play.

Road to the Super Bowl

The Titans are still alive, pulling one of the most memorable runs by a No. 6 seed in NFL history. The last team to win the Super Bowl as a No. 6 seed was the 2010 Green Bay Packers behind Aaron Rodgers. The Titans are relying on their own superstar in RB Derrick Henry in this run.

Henry is putting together one of the best stretches in NFL history. In the last eight games, Henry has 203 carries for 1,273 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. His 1,273 rushing yards in eight games is a new NFL record.

More recently, Henry has 588 rushing yards in the last three games, which is also an NFL record. No one had even broken a 180 yards in three consecutive weeks prior to Henry. It’s been very clear what the Titans have done down the stretch and still no one can stop them.

Ryan Tannehill was getting all the buzz entering the postseason but has been held to paltry numbers in his two playoff games, overshadowing his once elite play. Tannehill has not broken 100 yards passing and has stayed under 20 passing attempts in each game.

While Tannehill was asked to do a lot more in the regular season, he has still been playing at a high level when needed in the playoffs. He had a huge 45-yard touchdown pass to Kalif Raymond last week, while also rushing for a goal line score late. His beautiful pass to Jonnu Smith, who made an even better catch, gave Tennessee an early lead that helped put the Ravens in panic mode.

On the other side of the field, the Chiefs were silently putting together another amazing offensive season behind Patrick Mahomes. The injury bug hit hard for the Chiefs early in the season with Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Damien Williams all going down at various points of the regular season.

Despite the injury, Mahomes threw for 26 touchdowns and over 4,000 yards passing, and Hill was voted to the Pro Bowl again. The Chiefs started to gain steam towards the end of the season, winning six straight games to steal the No. 2 seed from the New England Patriots. The last loss for the Chiefs came against the Titans in Week 10.

That matchup was a wild one, with Tennessee scoring on an Adam Humphries touchdown reception with 23 seconds left. Tennessee also needed a Joshua Kalu blocked field goal to seal the victory. The Titans got additional help with another botched field goal attempt earlier in the fourth quarter where the Chiefs’ holder bobbled the snap.

When both teams meet this time around, they will look awfully similar in terms of what they want to do on offense.

The Titans will look to continue their ground-and-pound attack with Henry. Henry put together a 188-yard game last time against KC and I expect the Titans stick with that plan against the Chiefs’ 26th-ranked regular season run defense.

The Chiefs will also have their full arsenal of weapons on offense. The Titans will need to contain Hill, Kelce, Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman, who torched Tennessee for a 63-yard touchdown reception back in November. A key for the Titans will be to limit the red zone production of the Chiefs’ offense.

If Tennessee can force Kansas City to settle for some field goals instead of all touchdowns, then it has a very realistic chance of winning this game. This will be the weakest defense the Titans will have faced thus far in the playoffs, which should open up more opportunities in the passing game.

The Chiefs will look to shut down Henry at all costs, which means Tannehill can exploit the play-action and hit his targets downfield. The Chiefs will need to rely on their improved secondary to stay with their man coverage to stop the Titans in those situations.

The Titans own an amazing 31:1 touchdown to field goal ratio in the red zone since Tannehill took over. The Titans have not even attempted a field goal since Week 15 and will look to be aggressive in the red zone to keep pace with the fast-paced Chiefs offense.