FiveThirtyEight: Titans win vs. Ravens was biggest playoff upset of SB era

The Tennessee Titans’ win over the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round has been ranked as the biggest playoff upset of the Super Bowl era.

The Tennessee Titans went into the Divisional Round game against the Baltimore Ravens as heavy underdogs but were able to notch an upset victory at M&T Bank Stadium on Saturday night to advance to the AFC Championship Game.

After beating the New England Patriots in the Wild Card Round, the Titans were 10-point underdogs to the AFC’s No. 1 seed, and the Ravens were previously the only undefeated team (36-0) in the Super Bowl era when being favored by 10 or more points.

So much for that.

Per FiveThiryEight, Tennessee’s improbable win over Baltimore was the biggest upset in the Super Bowl era based on their pregame ELO win probability, which came in at 13.1 percent.

"neil (Neil Paine, senior sportswriter): That was the single most shocking playoff upset of the Super Bowl era, per Elo."

The second-most unlikely playoff victory based on FiveThirtyEight’s metric was the New York Giants’ upset of the Green Bay Packers in the 2011 Divisional Round game, as Big Blue had a win probability of 13.7 percent going into that contest.

Of course, that same Giants team went on to win the Super Bowl that season.

So, what win probability do the Titans have against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game this Sunday? FiveThirtyEight gives Tennessee a win probability of 31 percent to beat Kansas City.

This will be the second meeting between Kansas City and Tennessee this season. These squads met back in Week 10, with the Titans emerging victorious, 35-32. The Titans also won the previous meeting with the Chiefs, which came during the 2017 season in the Wild Card Round.

Per The Action Network, the Titans are 7.5-point underdogs to the Chiefs, who crushed the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round by a score of 51-31 despite falling behind 24-0 at one point.