Why Adam Humphries’ fantasy football outlook is worse than you think

PHILADELPHIA, PA - AUGUST 08: Andrew Sendejo #42 of the Philadelphia Eagles breaks up a pass intended for Adam Humphries #10 of the Tennessee Titans during the first quarter of a preseason game at Lincoln Financial Field on August 8, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Corey Perrine/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - AUGUST 08: Andrew Sendejo #42 of the Philadelphia Eagles breaks up a pass intended for Adam Humphries #10 of the Tennessee Titans during the first quarter of a preseason game at Lincoln Financial Field on August 8, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Corey Perrine/Getty Images) /
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Tennessee Titans wide receiver, Adam Humphries.
TAMPA, FL – OCTOBER 21: Adam Humphries #10 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers looks on during the second quarter against the Cleveland Browns on October 21, 2018 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.(Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images) /

Pass-first to run-first offense

The biggest hurdle standing in Adam Humphries’ way to reproducing his 2018 fantasy season is that he’s moving from a pass-first offense with the Buccaneers, to a run-first offense with the Titans.

The Bucs finished with the fourth-most pass attempts in 2018, and the most total passing yards. That was a huge plus for Humphries owners, as the Bucs were constantly throwing the rock in order to catch up to opposing teams who were scoring at will on their horrid defense.

With a strong defense of their own, the Titans won’t need to play catch up to the extent the Bucs did. Tennessee’s defense was the No. 3 scoring unit in 2018 and should be around that rank this season.

In 2019, Humphries joins a Titans offense that will feature the running game with back Derrick Henry. Tennessee also finished 31st in pass attempts and 29th in total passing yards in 2018.

Some of that awful mark had to do with Marcus Mariota dealing with a slew of injuries that affected his throwing and forced him to miss two games, while also leading to his early exit in others.

Because of Mariota’s injuries, Blaine Gabbert got into eight games (three starts), which is eight more games than he should ever play in during any given season.

Humphries, who totaled 76 receptions on 105 targets, will likely see a decline in his opportunities in his first season in Tennessee. As a result, we can expect a drop off in his total production from that of his 2018 numbers.