Boom/Bust vs Consistency
Finally, PFF talks about why they could maybe see an argument for Tannehill based on his absolute best case scenario:
"Tannehill has earned a grade as high as 80.4 in 2013, but he regressed the following two years with a 75.6 and a 69.8 mark, respectively. Mariota began his career in Tennessee with a 63.5 and has since worked his way up each year to a 76.8 grade in 2018."
With six years of tape, we have seen Tannehill do some nice things with some poor supporting casts. Theoretically, you could paint a picture of how he could recapture his career peak with a talented roster like what the Tennessee Titans.
However, what is more likely? Do you want to put your chips on Tannehill having another career year and play better than he has in half a decade or do you take the player who knows this offense, the coaching staff and the players? Oh, and Marcus Mariota has gotten better every single year.
To PFF and to me, the argument has a clear winner. While you can argue about Mariota’s future all you want, the fact remains that if you think Tannehill gives the Titans a better chance to win immediately, you are gambling on something you haven’t seen a hint of.
You can be down on Mariota for whatever reason (likely stats based), but the idea that Tannehill is the safer bet ignores all the data and film that we have seen over the last few years in favor of a shiny new toy.