Fantasy Football: Corey Davis named in PFF’s bold predictions article

Tennessee Titans wide receiver, Corey Davis, was named in a bold predictions article posted by Pro Football Focus.

In an article written by Daniel Kelley of Pro Football Focus titled, “Bold Predictions for the 2019 fantasy football season,” Kelley predicted that Tennessee Titans wide receiver, Corey Davis, would finish the season as a top-15 fantasy receiver.

Kelley asserted that Davis would maintain his 2018 target shares and improve upon his scoring percentage per target to the league average of 5.1 scores per 100 targets.

In addition, facing weaker opposing corners in the 2019 season should allow Davis to stand among the top receivers by January.

"Among 32 players with at least 100 targets last year, only Jarvis Landry (2.9%) and Saquon Barkley (3.5%) scored on a lower percentage of their targets than Davis’ 3.7%. Among those 32 players, the average touchdown percentage was 5.8; across the league, it was 5.1. If Davis had scored at that 5.1% mark, he’d have scored another 1.5 touchdowns last year, carrying his WR27 finish to WR23. Considering he had a higher percentage of his targets (43%) come when lined up against top-25-graded corners than any other receiver and the additions of Adam Humphries and A.J. Brown and return of Delanie Walker should help divert that, and Davis’ ceiling is much higher than popular opinion has it."

Counterpoint to Corey Davis bold prediction

Kelley’s assumptions were indeed bold.  While he believed that the newly-acquired receiving options would detract defenses from singling Davis out in coverage, and thus allowing him to be more statistically productive, I respectfully disagree with such an assessment.  Quite the contrary, I believe the new receiving options will limit Davis’ targets.

Davis led the Titans last season with 112 targets, roughly 26 percent of the team’s total target shares.  Such volume could be attributed to the fact that the team didn’t have another consistent receiving option.  Running back, Dion Lewis, had the second most targets in 2018 with 67.

It’s difficult to project whether Davis will reach the league’s average scoring percentage of 5.1 per 100 targets.  Last season, Davis scored on 3.7 percent of his 112 targets.

According to PlayerProfiler.com, Davis’ true catch rate, which is the percentage of catches made on catchable balls, was just above 75 percent in 2018.  Compared to the elite receivers from the rest of the league, Davis’ true catch rate was at least ten percentage points lower.

Receivers such as Keenan Allen, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Julio Jones all hovered around 85 percent.  To catch up with the rest of the elite pass-catchers, Davis would have to take a major leap forward in progress this coming season.

Bottom line, Corey Davis is a receiver worth drafting between the third and the sixth rounds in 2019.  He fits in nicely as a second or third receiver in any scoring format.  For him to crack the top 15 for receivers, not only would Davis need to improve, but so would quarterback Marcus Mariota.

The receivers projected ahead of Davis all have prolific passers throwing them the football and are in predominantly pass-friendly offenses.  Davis is playing in Tennessee’s run-dominant offense with a quarterback that is still trying to establish himself as a legitimate passer in the NFL.

While I think Davis will certainly see the ball thrown less in his direction, his statistical production could improve slightly from that of the 65 catches for 891 yards and four touchdowns from last season.