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Tennessee Titans: Corey Davis considered ‘upside city’ in fantasy football

By John Lowell

LONDON, ENGLAND - OCTOBER 21: Corey Davis #84 of the Tennessee Titans fends off Desmond King #20 of the Los Angeles Chargers during the NFL International Series game between Tennessee Titans and Los Angeles Chargers at Wembley Stadium on October 21, 2018 in London, England. (Photo by Jack Thomas/Getty Images)
LONDON, ENGLAND - OCTOBER 21: Corey Davis #84 of the Tennessee Titans fends off Desmond King #20 of the Los Angeles Chargers during the NFL International Series game between Tennessee Titans and Los Angeles Chargers at Wembley Stadium on October 21, 2018 in London, England. (Photo by Jack Thomas/Getty Images) /
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Pro Football Focus has a sixth-tier grade on Tennessee Titans wide receiver Corey Davis.

Tennessee Titans wide receiver Corey Davis is in “Upside City,” according to Pro Football Focus’ Jeff Ratcliffe. And while I am a fan of the #ratpack, this feels like a slight.

Here’s how Ratcliffe has it structured:

Tier 1: High-ceiling, High-floor elites

Tier 2: Not as safe, but still elite

Tier 3: WR1s with elite upside

Tier 4: WR2s with WR1 upside

Tier 5: Breakouts (Where Corey Davis should be listed)

Tier 5a: Unsexy values

Tier 6: Upside city (Where Corey Davis is listed)

And so on.

Here’s what Ratcliffe thinks about Davis and other wide receivers in the same tier:

"Fantasy drafts keep giving wide receiver value this year, as this group of wideouts will be on the board in the middle rounds of your drafts. Some of these players have post-hype sleeper appeal (Davis, Shepard, and even Jackson) while others are viable breakout candidates (Pettis, Kirk, Sutton, and Coutee)."

What jumps off the page

Corey Davis had an inconsistent year in 2018. I wrote about it in my analysis of dynasty draft targets a week ago, and things have shifted dramatically since. Not just in dynasty formats, but Davis is free-falling in redrafts everywhere.

What I haven’t yet pointed out is that Davis was mostly a hit-or-miss WR before the Titans’ bye week. From weeks one through eight, he averaged 8.6 points per game and finished as the WR51 in Half PPR formats.

I’m noticing a pattern. And it’s not just with Davis, but with many other Titans as well. The second half of the season was a superior effort. In Half PPR, he tallied 90.6 fantasy points—10.6 ppg—and was the WR22 during that span. Those are WR2 numbers, and while I’m not saying there is no risk with Davis, his place on this list seems a little safe.

https://twitter.com/Titans/status/1062111029847453697

X Receiver

In 2018, true wide receiver No. 1’s had a median target share of roughly 22 percent; 3.6 percent less than CD84.

Including running backs and tight ends as potential “WR1s,” the Titans had the 11th highest primary receiver target share in the league last year. Better than Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Mike Evans, Oakland Raiders WR Antonio Brown, and Cleveland Browns WR Odell Beckham Jr.

That’s not to say that pure volume has everything to do with WR rankings, but it has to hold some weight. Even with the 2018 Titans only throwing the ball roughly 420 times—58.9 percent of the time to wideouts—Davis ate up 43 percent of those targets.

That’s big time.

More importantly, of the 32 WRs Ratcliffe lists above Corey Davis, only seven of them saw an opportunity greater.

https://twitter.com/thecheckdown/status/1041381036402237441

Conclusion

Here are the facts:

  1. Davis finished as a WR3 last season but certainly has WR2 upside. We saw it during the back-half of the year.
  2. Just as Titans QB Marcus Mariota is on his fifth offensive coordinator in five years, Davis is on his third in three. Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is looking to maintain some systematic consistency in 2019.
  3. Davis has shown improvement each year in the league and has flashed the elite talent that led to his selection at fifth overall in the 2017 NFL Draft.

While he may not be a top-tier fantasy football option at the moment, his breakout potential is definitely there, and I believe his position on this list is slightly undervalued. Even with more target competition than ever before, Davis could be a safety valve for Marcus Mariota in 2019.

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