Tennessee Titans Wide Receiver Adam Humphries finished as the WR24 in PPR formats in 2018. Don’t expect an encore.
Tennessee Titans Wide Receiver Adam Humphries had a stellar 2018 season, and not just from a fantasy perspective. He was dominant in the short to intermediate range.
Humphries finished the year with a grade of 78.8—seventh among WRs—on passes targeted from one to nine yards per Pro Football Focus.
Adam Humphries signed with the Titans after finishing last season with the league's 7th-highest receiving grade on short passes pic.twitter.com/idX1WCQMhp
— PFF (@PFF) May 10, 2019
I can’t stress enough how phenomenal he was on 3rd down last season. His efficiency was off the charts. The man moves the chains.
Fantasy Outlook
With a stat line of 76/816/5, his 2018 production was strong. Under former head coach, Dirk Koetter, he was operating in a high-powered, potent Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense. In fact, they were one of the best aerial attacks in the NFL last year, leading the league in passing yards per game.
Currently, Humphries has an ADP of WR70 in PPR formats, and I think that’s relatively fair given the upside of some of the WRs ahead of him. Here’s what I expect to happen:
59 catches for 625 yards and 3 touchdowns.
In PPR scoring, Humphries would bring home 139.5 points. In 2018, that would have been good for WR46.
How did I get here?
Last Year’s Success
Unfortunately, in fantasy football we can’t always bank on a player’s prior success. Sometimes, it can be a good indicator of things to come, but in this case, we have to pay attention to detail.
In 2018, Humphries saw 104 targets. That number was a 16.5 percent target share of the 627 pass attempts in Tampa Bay. To put things into perspective, the Tennessee Titans attempted 30 percent fewer passes coming in at a whopping 437.
Let’s round that up to 500 for good measure.
If Humphries manages to see another 16.5 percent this year, the former undrafted free agent will capitalize on his 82 targets. He has an impressive career average of 72.5 percent of targets caught over his four-year career, but I’m not sure it’s enough to make him fantasy relevant in Tennessee.
Bullseye
To me, Adam Humphries falls short of being a quality WR4 (in a 12-team league). While I think he will have a solid season for the Titans and is certainly a boost to their wide receiver room, he’s more than likely just a late-round dart throw in 2019 fantasy football leagues.