Just a quick reminder of what a 16 game season for Marcus Mariota should look like if everything went according to plan. Using his career stats a 16 game season would look like this (passing stats only):
3,430 yards, 7.5 YPA, 20 TDs, and 12 INTs
According to the model McFarland is using, this is what a moderate improvement would look like for Mariota now that the Titans have surrounded him with enough talent to pass the “Rule of Three”.
"Median Projected Efficiency Impact: Mariota increases his YPA to 7.75 and his TDPA from 3.5% to 4.5% Median Team Passing Totals: 3,975 Yards and 23 Touchdowns"
That projection would blow away Mariota’s former high in passing yards by more than 500 yards while also boosting his passing touchdowns to a number he has only surpassed once in his career.
Obviously there are a lot of other factors, but looking at just this alone I would say that a season like this not only gets Marcus Mariota a long term deal with the Tennessee Titans but it also likely gets the team to the playoffs despite a tough divisional schedule.
But what if it isn’t just a small boost? What would it look like if he made a sizeable improvement?