The Tennessee Titans will travel to London to take on the Los Angeles Chargers this weekend. Unfortunately, history is not on their side.
Because of the lengthy travel time and adaptation to a new time zone, many believe that when NFL teams play games in London, weird things can happen because of external circumstances. Last year, we saw the Jacksonville Jaguars and Los Angeles Rams demolish their opponents and spring themselves to historic seasons. They outscored the Baltimore Ravens and Arizona Cardinals, respectively, 77-7. The Jaguars were three-point underdogs in their game, while the Rams were just three-point favorites in theirs. But do those types of surprising performances happen regularly overseas?
Let’s go through all of the games ever played in London during the NFL International Series and see how the teams have performed and how the games played out.
(Note: all information courtesy of Pro Football Reference.)
2007
New York Giants 13-10 Miami Dolphins
Final Line: Giants (-10)
Final Over/Under: 48 (under)
2008
San Diego Chargers 32-37 New Orleans Saints
Final Line: Chargers (-3)
Final O/U: 45.5 (over)
2009
New England Patriots 35-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Final Line: Patriots (-15.5)
Final O/U: 44.5 (under)
2010
Denver Broncos 16-24 San Francisco 49ers
Final Line: 49ers (-2.5)
Final O/U: 41.5 (under)
2011
Chicago Bears 24-18 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Final Line: Bears (-2)
Final O/U: 44 (under)
2012
New England Patriots 45-7 St. Louis Rams
Final Line: Patriots (-7)
Final O/U: 46 (over)
2013
Pittsburgh Steelers 27-34 Minnesota Vikings
Final Line: Steelers (-3)
Final O/U: 41.5 (over)
San Francisco 49ers 42-10 Jacksonville Jaguars
Final Line: 49ers (-14.5)
Final O/U: 40 (over)
2014
Miami Dolphins 38-14 Oakland Raiders
Final Line: Dolphins (-3.5)
Final O/U: 40.5 (over)
Detroit Lions 22-21 Atlanta Falcons
Final Line: Lions (-3.5)
Final O/U: 45.5 (under)
Dallas Cowboys 31-17 Jacksonville Jaguars
Final Line: Cowboys (-7.5)
Final O/U: 45 (over)
2015
New York Jets 27-14 Miami Dolphins
Final Line: Jets (-1.5)
Final O/U: 42 (under)
Buffalo Bills 31-34 Jacksonville Jaguars
Final Line: Bills (-4)
Final O/U: 41 (over)
Detroit Lions 10-45 Kansas City Chiefs
Final Line: Chiefs (-3.5)
Final O/U: 45 (over)
2016
Indianapolis Colts 27-30 Jacksonville Jaguars
Final Line: Colts (-1)
Final O/U: 48 (over)
New York Giants 17-10 Los Angeles Rams
Final Line: Giants (-2.5)
Final O/U: 44.5 (under)
Washington Redskins 27-27 Cincinnati Bengals
Final Line: Bengals (-3)
Final O/U: 49 (over)
2017
Baltimore Ravens 7-44 Jacksonville Jaguars
Final Line: Ravens (-3)
Final O/U: 38 (over)
New Orleans Saints 20-0 Miami Dolphins
Final Line: Saints (-4)
Final O/U: 51.5 (under)
Arizona Cardinals 0-33 Los Angeles Rams
Final Line: Rams (-3)
Final O/U: 45.5 (under)
Minnesota Vikings 33-16 Cleveland Browns
Final Line: Vikings (-11)
Final O/U: 38.5 (over)
2018
Seattle Seahawks 27-3 Oakland Raiders
Final line: Seahawks (-3)
Final O/U: 48 (under)
Let’s break all of this down. There have been 22 NFL games played in London. Within those 22 games, the favored team has covered the spread 15 times. Of those 22 games, 12 of them have gone over the projected O/U. For Titans-Chargers, the spread is currently set at -7 in favor of the Chargers, while the O/U is set at 45. History doesn’t exactly give the Titans a ton of hope for an upset, especially given that since 2014, 10 out of 14 favored teams have covered. The good news is that games have gone under the projected score in six of the last 14 instances; a low-scoring game would give the Titans a better chance of coming away with a victory.
This may all be natural variance, but London games aren’t quite as weird as many would like to believe. Vegas usually does a pretty good job of projecting who will win and by how much. Spreads in these games aren’t frequently as high as the -7 of Titans-Chargers, but when it is that high or higher, the favored team has covered five out of six times. And the favored team has won every single one of those games.
If you were a Titans fan looking for some hope that history would favor the Titans, that just simply isn’t the case. Given how the team has played, an upset doesn’t seem likely. But maybe, just maybe, the Chargers will be gassed from a painfully long flight and the Titans will take advantage of the two-to-four hour difference in travel. That’s not a stretch, is it?