Evaluating Via Trade Chart, Recent Examples
Tennessee Titans: Why a Round 1 Trade-Up is Highly Unlikely
(Trade chart from draftcountdown.com)
Let’s examine the trade value chart that’s positioned on the right side. I’ve included picks No. 1-11. If you want more information on picks throughout the entire seven-round draft, then visit the link that’s above this paragraph.
Below are the point totals for all six of Tennessee’s picks: Round 4-7 are estimated because exact slots aren’t known until compensatory picks are rewarded.
No. 11: 1,250 points
No. 42: 480 points
Round 3 (NONE)
Round 4 (Undetermined): Below 90
Round 5 (Undetermined): Below 40
Round 6 (Undetermined): Below 25
Round 7 (Undetermined): Below 15
So let’s combine Rounds 1-4. That equals a little more than 1,800 points. It doesn’t put them anywhere near where they’d have to get to please the Rams (2,600 points). The Rams have hinted that any potential trade-up would begin with multiple first-round picks. Emphasis on “would begin.” In 2012, the Rams received three first-round picks (including No. 6 from 2012) and a second-round pick for the No. 2 pick from 2012.
Trading picks No. 11 and 42 would put Tennessee within the 5-10 range. That still requires a generous team who’s willing to move down at a reasonable price…
… Which is possible. During the 2013 NFL Draft, the Oakland Raiders and Miami Dolphins agreed to a trade when Oakland sent No. 3 (2,200 points) to Miami for No. 12 (1,200 points) and No. 42 (480 points). That’s 520 points short of a fair deal, the value of pick No. 38. A Dolphins employee was quoted as saying that they got the pick “at half price.”
The Titans have picks No. 11 (1,250 points) and No. 42 (480 points). The Raiders have No. 5 (1,700 points). So if Tennessee were desperate enough to trade into the top five, Oakland has shown that they’re far more than generous enough to pull that off.
But if that happened, then it becomes Tennessee’s only Day 1-2 pick. When Miami did it, they still had picks No. 54, 77 and 93. More picks give teams the luxury to comfortably complete trade-up transactions.