Dec 31, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA;LSU Tigers safety Eric Reid (1) and linebacker Kevin Minter (46) break up a pass intended for Clemson Tigers wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (6) in the second half in the 2012 Chick-fil-A Bowl at the Georgia Dome. Clemson won 25-24. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

2013 NFL Draft: Should Tennessee Titans Trade Back Into 1st Round?


What can Tennessee Titans enthusiasts expect when the 2013 NFL Draft takes place from Apr. 25-27? Any chance for a trade-up or trade-down with the No. 10 pick? What about with their other five non-compensatory picks?

It’s assumed that general managers refer to something called a trade value chart. This helps them estimate the cost of each draft pick. Supposedly, it’s used when teams are deciding to move up or down during draft day. Former two-time Super Bowl champion head coach Jimmy Johnson has been credited for this system.

With nine picks (six non-compensatory) and two third-round selections, general manager Ruston Webster has a lot of leverage for moving around. Although moving up from the No. 10 spot is unlikely, maybe Webster gets tempted to move back into the late stages of the first round.

The following is a rundown with the estimated worth of each of the Titans’ picks. Included are a few deals that would meet the criteria for moving up on the trade value chart.

 

2013 Tennessee Titans NFL Draft Order and Trade Value Per Pick
No. 10 (1,300 Points)
No. 40 (500 Points)
No. 70 (240 Points)
No. 97 (0 Points; Compensatory)
No. 107 (80 Points)
No. 142 (35 Points)
No. 202 (0 Points; Compensatory)
No. 216 (5 Points)
No. 248 (0 Points; Compensatory)

 

Approximate Cost of Trade-Ups, Via Trade Value Chart
No. 10 (1,300 Points) + No. 40 (500 Points) = No. 4 (1,800 Points)
No. 40 (500 Points) + No. 70 (240 Points) = No. 24 (740 Points)
No. 40 (500 Points) + No. 107 (80 Points) = No. 33 (580 Points)
No. 70 (240 Points) + No. 107 (80 Points) = No. 58 (320 Points)
No. 107 (80 Points) + No. 142 (35 Points) = No. 97 (112 Points) + No. 221 (3 Points)
No. 142 (35 Points) + No. 216 (5 Points) = No. 132 (40 Points)

NOTE: In 2013, No. 97 and No. 132 are “0 points” because they’re compensatory.

 

Overview
I italicized the second scenario because I wanted people to take note of it (The third scenario is also a good one, but this overview will focus on the second one).

What if the Titans really like somebody in the 20s or early 30s? That extra third-round compensatory pick (No. 97) may convince Webster to sacrifice his other third-round pick (No. 70). Even if the Titans traded a second-round pick (No. 40) and third-round pick (No. 70), they would’ve ended up with two first-round picks and that compensatory third-round pick.

That extra third-round pick may come in very useful because Webster could use No. 70 to work his way into a second first-round pick. Here’s an example: if Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson isn’t in love with someone at No. 26, it’s possible that Webster could entice him with a package that includes No. 40 and No. 70. Thompson has been known to trade for quantity of picks.

This doesn’t include scenarios where the Titans trade future draft picks (2014-beyond) or players.

For the Titans, a trade-up makes a lot of sense. The Packers were in a similar situation in the 2009 NFL Draft. After taking B.J. Raji at No. 9, the Packers traded No. 41 (490 points), No. 73 (225 points) and No. 83 (175 points) to the New England Patriots for No. 26 (700 points) and No. 162 (26.6 points). Although the Packers traded 890 points for 726.6 points, it was worth it for a linebacker who has 42.5 sacks in his first four seasons.

Trade-ups will work if the correct players are targeted. Should Webster sacrifice a quantity of picks for the chance to draft someone that may not fall to No. 40? Give a first-round pick to the offense and defense.

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Tags: 2013 NFL Draft Football NFL Opinion Tennessee Titans

  • josh gunnels

    Yes, yes and yes.

    I’ve been saying this for weeks.

    I would love it if the Titans packaged their 2nd with either their 4th or third to get into the 20′s or early 30′s. The extra 3rd makes this all possible and the opportunity shouldn’t be squandered. The Titans don’t need 9 rookies this year.

    • http://www.titansized.com/ Justin Stewart

      Either way, we’ll still have those later picks. I’d rather dump those.

    • Shawn Eagle

      I’m sorry but the math just doesn’t compute with me….I think that chart is off. Whenever I have seen a team trade back into the 1st round they have almost always given up their next years 1st round pick.
      There is no way in the world I would trade the rights to possibly the 24th best player in the draft for the 40th and 70th…ain’t happening.

      • Shawn Eagle

        I love replying to myself….yep…I just loooked at the trades from last year…those values are basically right on…my bad

        • josh gunnels

          Ha! That’s hilarious.

  • http://www.titansized.com/ Justin Stewart

    So if we do trade back into the first round, who would we be targeting?

    • josh gunnels

      Bjeorn Werner.!! Very much a Jerry Gray kind of DE. He’s fallen on the mock drafts but who knows what the teams think of him. If he drops to the 20′s and we have Warmack, then snag him!

      • David Fleming

        That’s a really good call Josh. At one point in the draft process Werner was listed as a top-5 pick. That was because of his incredible college tape, then the combine “experts” poked and prodded him, questioning his overall athleticism. He’s by far the most well rounded DE in draft, and I can see that scenario of trading back into 1st for him.

        • Shawn Eagle

          I wouldn’t say by far…..I think Tank is the most complete DE in the draft. Had 13 sacks when he was gone for the season…Werner ended up with 11. As physically gifted as you’ll find.
          One more thing….maybe two….What is the rush and all the hub bub about trading back into the 1st round to get a DE that…at best…will play sparingly his first couple seasons??? He is not going to walk in and take Morgan’s J…..would have to be someone who was going to take Wimbley’s J…..and still be a part timer for at least a year.

          • David Fleming

            I don’t think Morgan nor Wimbley have (without a doubt) locked down their starting jobs. Both were decent last year, but we need more production from that position. Also, either Werner or Tank would provide depth so we can run a rotation at DE, keeping everyone fresher.

          • http://www.titansized.com/ Justin Stewart

            Yeah. They need the rotation, plus the push from the middle of the line.
            They’d come around the ends last season and the QB would just step up
            in the pocket.

          • josh gunnels

            I actually think Werner may compete for Wimbley to start and it adds depth and rotation.

            Either way trading back into the first makes since for the Titans right now. They need fewer higher quality players, not a 9 rookies. For a team a lot of picks, it makes since to get higher ranked players and make fewer picks.

          • http://www.titansized.com/ Justin Stewart

            If he hadn’t torn his ACL, I’d be down with Tank. He also was 2nd in tackles, despite not being able to finish the season. That torn ACL definitely drops his value to me though.

  • David Fleming

    So according to the draft compensation chart, we could package our 1st (1300 pts) and our 3rd (240 pts) and be only 60 pts shy of the 6th overall pick (1600 pts). That would most likely give us a shot at drafting Milliner, Ansah, or Jordan, my three favorite defensive players in this draft. Thoughts?

    • http://twitter.com/Armchair_Psycho Joshua Huffman

      One thing worth noting is that Miami has an extra 2nd and extra 3rd round pick. So they could probably make a nicer package than the Titans if they wanted to get into that 6-8 range (I’ve also heard they may try to get up to 4).

      • David Fleming

        And never put anything past Jeff Ireland, good or bad.

      • David Fleming

        Miami is gonna trade up to take Lane Johnson ahead of the Cardinals. They’re desperate for a LT and he’s the drop-off point in talent. That means the Bills and Cards could both take guards, leaving us out in the cold on Warmack or Cooper. If that happens, we gotta get Larry Warford, cuz I think he’s the real deal.

        • http://twitter.com/Armchair_Psycho Joshua Huffman

          From what I read, they love Brian Winters from Kent State. That may be their target at No. 40 if the other two are gone before No. 10 (or maybe even if those guys are still there at 10).

    • josh gunnels

      If the Titans wanted Milliner that bad, then maybe you do it. I say no way for Ansah or Jordan.
      I know I’m becoming the minority, but Werner is a better DE for the tight formation 4-3 scheme the Titans play than those other guys. and you don’t have to trade up for him.
      Ansah can’t play the run as well as Werner and only pass rushes better from wide-9 technique. Better suited for a team like Detroit.