Tony Pollard vs Tyjae Spears: Who to draft in fantasy football?

When the Tennessee Titans signed running back Tony Pollard this offseason, it raised questions over whether he or rising second-year player Tyjae Spears would be the starter and what their projected workload split would be in the backfield. While the signing created a luxury for the Titans and new head coach Brian Callahan, the crowded backfield caused potential headaches for fantasy football managers.

Lets take a look at how this backfield could play out, which of these running backs you should draft for fantasy, and which is a better value at their current average draft position (ADP).

2023 Season

Last season, Pollard came back from a fractured leg and high ankle sprain suffered during the 2022 playoffs to lead the Dallas Cowboys' backfield. The University of Memphis product finished as the RB22 in points per game (11.5 in half PPR format) and RB15 in total points. Pollard averaged career lows in yards per carry (4.0) and yards per reception (5.7), but made up for his efficiency woes with volume by posting career highs in carries (252) and receptions (55).

Spears was the Titans' third-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and spent his rookie season backing up Derrick Henry. The Louisiana native managed to finish as the RB43 in points per game (7.5) and RB35 in total points despite his limited role. Spears was highly efficient and looked explosive, averaging 4.5 yards per carry and 7.4 yards per reception despite questionable offensive line play in front of him.

Situation

Head coach Brian Callahan comes to the Titans having spent the previous five seasons as the offensive coordinator of the Cincinnati Bengals under head coach Zac Taylor. The Bengals have ranked in the top five of pass rate each of the past two seasons, even with starting quarterback Joe Burrow missing seven games last year. The Titans ranked bottom ten in the league during that same span, opting to lean more on Derrick Henry and the running game. The Bengals also played at a faster pace than the Titans, running more plays per game each of the past two seasons.

The new head coach will bring a more up-tempo offense with more passing volume than the Titans have seen in prior seasons. ESPN's Mike Clay currently projects the Titans to have the highest pass rate in the league while also seeing a 5% jump in total plays vs the 2023 season, per his 2024 projection guide. This means more target and touchdown opportunities, the two most valuable plays for running backs, for both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears.

The newly formed duo will see little competition for touches in the backfield outside of blowouts or injury. The battle for the third position on the depth chart is between Hassan Haskins, Julius Chestnut, and Jabari Small- all of whom have a combined 34 career rushing attempts. Even Callahan's latest quote has distinguished Pollard and Spears from the rest of the group stating, "They are both starting players to me."

Workload Split

The Titans have stated that Pollard and Spears will share backfield touches and that they'll work with a "hot hand" approach as they're comfortable with both running backs carrying the ball and catching passes. There are certain tendencies that both of these players have that might reflect the role that they'll have this upcoming season.

Pollard showed last year he could handle a heavy workload and create yards after contact, finishing seventh in the league in rushing attempts and third in yards after contact. Given the Titans struggles in run blocking last season and the uncertainty around their line, particularly the right side, Pollard is the favorite take a majority of the carries out of the backfield as the team looks for him to churn out yards after contact.

Spears showed his burst and efficiency last year in a limited role, one that will grow significantly this season in volume. The Tulane University product had a higher rate of explosive runs (15+ yards), more yards per carry, and yards per reception than his backfield partner. Spears has shown to be more efficient with his touches than Pollard and looks likely to catch more passes given his ability to create explosive plays when out in space.

Both players should get goal line carries throughout the season, particularly if the Titans rotate series between the two backs. Pollard has a 14 pound weight advantage and was only stuffed in short yardage situations at a 24% rate (vs 29% for Spears) last season, per Warren Sharp. While Spears will see goal line carries and have more scoring chances through the air, Pollard projects to lead the team in red zone carries and may end up with a slight edge in total touchdowns between the two.

Projection

I expect Tony Pollard to lead the team in touches with a rushing line of 190 attempts for 770 yards and seven TDs, adding on another 35 receptions for 240 yards and one score. This would place him as roughly the RB25 based on last year's half-PPR scoring leaders and roughly in-line with his current ADP of RB27, making him a solid pick in any fantasy draft with huge upside if Tyjae Spears misses time with injury.

Spears' efficiency and receiving work look to lead him to a big sophomore season. I'm projecting a rushing line of 165 rushes for 730 yards and five TDs, with another 55 catches for 430 yards and two TDs through the air. This would make Spears the RB19 based on last year's half-PPR scoring leaders, well above his current ADP as RB36.

Spears is not only the better value between the two backs, but he's the player I would outright select if given the chance in my fantasy draft. I'd be ok drafting Spears in late round 6 or early round 7 vs his current ADP in round 9. I would grab Pollard in late round 7 or early round 8, right around his ADP.