Tennessee Titans fans shouldn't overthink the idea of drafting Joe Alt

There is an expression about greed that Tennessee Titans fans need to remember heading into the 2024 NFL Draft, "Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered."

The Tennessee Titans have the 7th pick in the draft and all of the rumor and speculation right now is that four quarterbacks are going to be drafted before the Titans select.

That means that Ran Carthon should have the option of taking one of the three best non-QBs (Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Joe Alt) in this draft class.

All three of those players should be viewed as blue-chip prospects who can be foundational pieces for their franchises going forward, and all three miraculously fill a need for the Titans. It should be as simple as drafting whichever one of those players falls into the Titans lap at 7, but it isn't.

Despite a very productive offseason, the Tennessee Titans still have holes on their roster outside of tackle and receiver. Even assuming that they sign a veteran free agent safety to start next to Amani Hooker, they could still use a starting linebacker and some depth at EDGE and along the defensive line.

That has prompted people to start hoping that the Titans will trade back in the first round to collect more draft picks so that they can continue to patch those holes.

If the draft compensation is outstanding, then the Titans should seriously consider it. Specifically, if they get an offer from the Minnesota Vikings that includes both first-round picks or if they get a monster deal from someone else who is also offering a player that would fill one of their needs.

But if the two flashy receivers are gone, there are too many people out there who are willing to trade down 5-10 spots for a third-round pick. The idea behind it is that this is a deep tackle class and that you can get someone almost as good as Joe Alt with a pick in the middle of the first round.

The Tennessee Titans need to value clarity

I wanted to talk about the argument that there isn't a big drop-off and that some analysts don't even have Joe Alt as their top tackle. Easton Freeze has been very outspoken on this topic and he made a thread about this on Monday morning:

Everything that Easton says there is true, Joe Alt is not the top tackle for everyone. No two big boards are the same, which is why the draft is always so interesting. There are very few consensus players in any draft class, and even Marvin Harrison Jr. who was regarded as a can't-miss prospect for two years, is the WR2 on some boards.

Without any way of knowing what the Tennessee Titans think, I encourage everyone to make their own consensus big board based on draft analysts that you respect. Compiling that data can take some time, and if you want something quicker I would suggest keeping up with Marcus Mosher who has a constantly updating consensus big board.

What this does is it gives you a range of outcomes to expect for the draft prospects. Every analyst has some inherent bias that they can't get rid of. For example, some analysts love receivers who are fast and explosive and those analysts probably preferred Tavon Austin and John Ross over DeAndre Hopkins and Mike Williams.

On Mosher's latest composite big board, Joe Alt was the consensus OT1 because everyone reputable has Alt as either the OT1 or OT2 on their big board. So, analysts believe that Alt will either be the best or the second-best tackle to come out of this class regardless of their inherent biases.

While there is a clear-cut consensus player at the top, it gets very muddy talking about who the OT2 is in this class.

Nate Tice has Olu Fashanu as the seventh-best player in this class, just one spot ahead of Joe Alt. Meanwhile, Lance Zierline has Olu Fashanu as the 21st-ranked player in the NFL Draft and has him tied for OT4/5.

Zierline has J.C. Latham as the 9th-best player in this class and his OT1, but Matt Miller has J.C. Latham as the 23rd-best player and the OT5 in this class.

Can you see the issue here? Sure, there are a few people who think that someone is close to Joe Alt as the OT1 in this class, but no one can agree on who that player is. That is why there is a cluster of tackles in the middle of the first round, but no clear order beyond Alt.

If the Tennessee Titans trade down in the first round one of these tackles will be there. Fans will be able to scour draft boards to find one draft analyst out there who really likes the pick but there will likely be more analysts out there who think it was a bad move.

Trading down is high risk, low reward

At 7, the Tennessee Titans have a real chance to get a guy that everyone either loves or really likes, so why get greedy just because someone waves a third-round pick in front of you?

People will argue that you want more lottery tickets because you could land two stars if you turn one pick into two picks, but how often do third-round picks turn out to be stars? In fact, how often do third-round picks turn into players who get a second contract with their team?

If Marvin Harrison Jr. or Malik Nabers falls into the Titans laps, fans will be thrilled to have them on the roster and they absolutely should be thrilled because that would give the Titans one of the best trio of receivers in the NFL. Even though this is a deep and talented class of receivers, no one is advocating trading down and drafting a receiver while they pass on Marvin Harrison Jr. or Malik Nabers.

Could a trade-down work? Absolutely. The Titans could trade down and get lucky enough that their guy (whoever that is) falls into their lap and then they stumble into great values at 38 and with the third-round pick that they add.

Is it likely to work? Absolutely not. It is very hard for a GM to hit on all of their top-100 picks and you are much more likely to hit on one, maybe two of those players. In reality, trading down doesn't make the Titans draft class stronger, it makes it riskier. If Ran Carthon trades down then his career is going to be judged by all of the players he could have had with the 7th pick unless he crushes his new pick.