Each year the middle of June starts the beginning of the real offseason in the NFL, which means that any news is monumental news.
Trevor Lawrence recently signed a pricey extension, which has the national media looking at the AFC South for the first time in a while, so as a PSA I wanted to clear up some good and bad takes about the signal-callers for the Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, and Tennessee Titans.
To do that, I am going to go over the biggest narratives around C.J. Stroud, Trevor Lawrence, Anthony Richardson, and Will Levis, and I will say whether each narrative is right (fact) or wrong (fiction).
Jumping right in, let's start with the narrative going around right now after Trevor Lawrence got paid.
Fact or fiction: Trevor Lawrence is an elite quarterback
Verdict: Fiction
Being a highly-paid quarterback has less to do with talent and more to do with timing. When you look at Lawrence, there are only two types of people who would call him an elite quarterback, Jaguars fans and people who haven't watched the AFC South since Lawrence has been in the NFL.
For the sake of argument, let's say that an elite QB has to be one of the eight best players at his position (that means he is in the top 25%).
No rational analyst would put Trevor Lawrence in the same universe as Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, or Matthew Stafford, which knocks him out of the top four. Even though C.J. Stroud has only been in the NFL for a season, he has already blown past Lawrence (more on that later), and other young QBs like Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts have also put him in the rearview mirror.
If you are being kind and looking at the best of Trevor Lawrence, the debate starts around that 8-10 range vs guys like Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, and Jordan Love. But even in that group, he isn't the most proven (Rodgers, Prescott, and Cousins) or the one with the most upside (Love) so it is hard to get that excited about him.
So no, despite the payday and the "generational" label that is slapped on quarterbacks every other year, Lawrence isn't an elite quarterback and there is a very good chance that his ceiling is this 9-12 range considering that the Jaguars spent his cheap seasons losing 60% of their games and now they won't be able to surround him with the same kind of talent from free agency.
Fact or fiction: Trevor Lawrence is the most overrated QB in the AFC South?
Verdict: Fiction
Lawrence isn't an elite quarterback, but he has proven that he can be an above-average starter. Even though he is going to be overpaid simply by the nature of the position he plays, he isn't the most overrated quarterback in the AFC South.
That title belong to Anthony Richardson.
Richardson is a walking hype machine, but...why? Think about this, Richardson's last season of high school football was in 2019. In the four years after that, there has only been one time where he has completed more than 50 passes in an entire season.
He spent that time either buried on a depth chart behind average SEC quarterbacks or injured. Speaking of injuries, Richardson has already had a concussion in the NFL which is never good, and he suffered an AC joint sprain in his 4th NFL game and missed the rest of the season.
Despite that, the fantasy community has fallen head over heels for him because of his ability as a runner, and that has created the misconception that he is a much better quarterback than he actually is.
When you think about it for more than a second, you can see how problematic it is to pin all of these expectations on a running quarterback that has already started to pile up injuries to his head and to his throwing shoulder just four games in to his NFL career.
Fact or fiction: Will Levis is the most underrated QB in the AFC South?
Verdict: Fact
If you are a Titans fan you already know this, but if you aren't then this might be hard for you to come to terms with. Don't worry, there is plenty of information out there to convince you. If you are a fan of another AFC South team that doesn't want to acknowledge my opinion, you are in luck because plenty of other people also saying this.
Brent Sobleski said he believes Levis is the most underrated QB in the NFL, not just in the AFC South.
Marcus Mosher had Levis at the top of his list of QBs who were breakout candidates this season.
New Titans HC Brian Callahan has taken every opportunity to talk up Will Levis despite not being the guy who would be on the hook for Levis if he didn't work out.
Close your eyes and rank the AFC South QBs in your head based on what we have seen. Now look at what they have done on the field (highlighted categories are where each QB leads):
Will Levis (per game): 58.4%, 1 pass TD, 0.5 INTs, 7.1 YPA, 12.1 YPC, 9.9% sack rate
Trevor Lawrence (per game): 63.8%, 1.16 pass TD, 0.78 INTs, 6.7 YPA, 10.5 YPC, 5.1% sack rate
Anthony Richardson (per game): 59.5%, 0.75 pass TD, 0.25 INTs, 6.9 YPA, 11.5 TPC, 7.7% sack rate
(More on Stroud on the last page)
Despite the narrative, Levis is better at protecting the ball than Trevor Lawrence and he is creating more explosive plays than Richardson.
Keep in mind, Levis did that last year with:
-A coach who thought that the running game was more important than passing the ball
-Receivers that led the league in dropped passes (most of which have been upgraded)
-The worst OL coach in the NFL (replaced by the best OL coach in the NFL)
-The worst OL in the league (which will have 4 new starters next year)
Too many people in the NFL were bored by Mike Vrabel's preferred offense and skipped watching Titans games because of that. That won't be the case this season and while he will always have to pay the tax of playing for a small market team, it shouldn't take long for the people that pay attention to realize that they were way too low on him.
Fact or fiction: C.J. Stroud is the best QB in the AFC South?
Verdict: Fact
Time will tell whether Will Levis or Anthony Richardson end up in this conversation, but right now Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud are the only proven QBs in the AFC South.
When it comes to Stroud there is only one season to work with, but Stroud's rookie year was so far ahead of what Lawrence did as a rookie that it is unfair to compare those two seasons.
In fairness to Trevor Lawrence, I compared Stroud's only season to Lawrence's best season (2022). Stroud missed two games because the Texans were being cautious with him, so I did my comparison based on per-game stats.
When you compare the two, Stroud had better numbers in terms of:
-Touchdowns
-Interceptions
-QB rate
-Sack% (meaning he had a worse OL)
-Yards per attempt
-Yards per completion
Trevor Lawrence won:
-Completion%
Even when you look at the best-case scenario for Lawrence, it is a win for Stroud. With a year of tape for defenses to adjust to, it will be interesting to see if Stroud can stay hot because right now the only way this turns into a discussion is if Stroud has a slump (or if Levis or Richardson have an ascendant season).