The Tennessee Titans have executed their master plan to perfection.
Right now, the Tennessee Titans are just two months away from their first preseason game of the 2021 season, but any explanation of the state of the roster has to start with the playoff loss five months ago.
After a year where the offense was red hot and nearly everyone seemed to hit career highs, the Titans walked into the playoffs worrying more about where they would play instead of if they would play in the postseason.
Following their 11th win of the year and their AFC South crown, they hosted the Baltimore Ravens. After a disappointing 20-13 loss, the Titans were in a weird spot. For the first time all year, the defense had managed to not completely embarrass the franchise, but the offense just didn’t have enough firepower when Corey Davis was injured.
The to-do list for the offseason was long and questions about whether the Titans would be able to re-sign Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith made it even murkier.
Any plan had to start with the defensive side of the ball though and Mike Vrabel made the decision to back his protege instead of his players, ultimately picking Shane Bowen as the official Defensive Coordinator for the 2021 season.
After that, the game plan was mapped out.
The Tennessee Titans put together a to-do list.
All of the Tennessee Titans tasks could be put into one of two categories.
1. Build a defense to make Trevor Lawrence look more like David Carr than Andrew Luck.
To do this, the Titans needed to make sweeping changes on defense. If they were going to double down on Shane Bowen, Jon Robinson was going to be tasked with giving him so much talent that even he couldn’t fail.
Specifically, the team had to figure out how to massively improve on third downs where they were the worst team in the NFL…and actually the worst team in NFL history.
2. With limited resources, find a way to sustain the offense in a cost-effective way.
In retrospect, this was a much more difficult task than it appeared at first. Losing OC Arthur Smith hurts, but the system is in place for his replacement (Todd Downing) to succeed. However, to compensate for this the Tennessee Titans would probably need to end up with an offense that was more talented than 2020.
With those goals in mind, how did the Titans start the offseason?
Things get off to a scary start for Jon Robinson and the Tennessee Titans.
Without looking at the additions the Tennessee Titans made, here is a list of players that Jon Robinson couldn’t afford to re-sign or who he was forced to cut for his master plan to be achieved.
-Corey Davis
-Kenny Vaccaro
-Malcolm Butler
-Dennis Kelly
-DaQuan Jones
-Kalif Raymond
-Adoree Jackson
-Adam Humphries
-Desmond King
-Jadeveon Clowney
-MyCole Pruitt
Excluding Vaccaro and Kelly, who are still a free agent, those players will combine for an AAV of $59.8 million. When those other two finally sign, the number will probably be in the $70-65 million range.
10 of those 12 players were projected starters for the Tennessee Titans heading into 2020 and that doesn’t include Desmond King who was the team’s slot cornerback as soon as they traded for him.
Ultimately, the Titans would have to navigate replacing 11 starters while also trying to still fulfill their two big goals of the offseason (much better pass defense, sustained offensive success despite coaching changes).
That brings us to their free agency additions.
The Tennessee Titans make some calculated moves in free agency.
Instead of going beat-by-beat through all of the Tennessee Titans free agency moves, I am going to break down the free agents who are projected to be starters and who they will be replacing.
1. Bud Dupree replaces Jadeveon Clowney.
The biggest question was whether or not the Titans would wait for the draft to address the pass rusher or if they would write a big check to a free agent. They answered that question on the first day of free agency when they signed Bud Dupree to a big contract.
Dupree earned every penny of that deal though and he is 1 of 8 EDGEs with more than 19 sacks over the last two seasons. Clowney had 21.5 sacks in his last four seasons for comparison, so this is a massive upgrade.
2. Denico Autry replaces DaQuan Jones/Jack Crawford.
I’m not sure where Autry is going to play, but the common belief is that he will line up everywhere from 1-tech to 5-tech and his pass-rushing expertise is a massive upgrade over Jones and Crawford who were both solid players for the Titans.
3. Janoris Jenkins replaces Malcolm Butler.
This is tough because Butler was far and away the best defensive back on the Titans roster last season, but it is admittedly hard to separate how much of that was because he was playing well from the bar being so low thanks to the rest of the defense.
Both are very similar players and they fill different needs, but ultimately Jenkins was a cheaper option with better recent production.
4. Josh Reynolds replaces Corey Davis (but really Adam Humphries).
Spoiler alert, the Titans ended up trading for Julio Jones so Reynolds will most likely replace Adam Humphries as a slot specialist when the Titans use three receivers. There should be a big asterisk here though because Reynolds has the skills and experience to be a slot receiver, but he also has the tools to be a rotational/matchup player at the X and Z receiver spots.
Those were the clear starters brought in during the free agency process, so that set the stage for the 2021 NFL Draft. With four starters replaced and seven to go, the Titans needed a draft that provided more clarity.
The Tennessee Titans find key pieces in the NFL Draft.
Like free agency, this is only a list of the projected starters from the 2021 draft class unless they replace a particularly important rotational player.
1. Caleb Farley replaces Adoree Jackson.
Fans were very split coming into the draft whether the choice should have been a receiver like Elijah Moore or a defensive player like Caleb Farley, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Jaelen Phillips, or Gregory Rousseau. The Titans opted to go with Farley with eyes on his freakish upside and position value (more on this later).
2. Dillon Radunz replaces Dennis Kelly.
This was one of the most surprising picks in the draft because it looked like the Titans were comfortable with free agent pick up Kendall Lamm starting at the right tackle spot. However, now it looks like the Tennessee Titans are hoping that their young right guard and right tackle tandem can help pave the way for Derrick Henry.
3. Elijah Molden replaces Desmond King.
Kristian Fulton is still very much in the conversation for one of the starting cornerback spots whether he is on the boundary replacing Butler or Adoree, or if he is inside replacing King. Having said that, Molden is a slot specialized who the coaching staff raved about and whose tape is full of eye-popping plays.
While Fulton’s place in the lineup is now in question, there is one player who the Titans brought in that has a clear role going forward…
The Tennessee Titans pull off a blockbuster trade for Julio Jones.
In the future, people will look back at this offseason for the Titans and the defining moment will most likely be when Jon Robinson traded a future 2nd and 4th round pick for Julio Jones and a 6th round pick.
All the talk about cap space amounted to nothing because Tennessee just restructured Ryan Tannehill and they now have more cap space than they did before they made the trade for Julio.
This move is the centerpiece of the offseason and it makes every move look better in hindsight. Trading for Julio Jones makes the Caleb Farley pick look better, it makes the Josh Reynolds move look better, it makes passing up on Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith look better, nearly every decision the Titans made this offseason has to be reviewed with the mindset that the Titans felt like they could get an elite receiver at some point in this process.
Getting the bookkeeping out of the way, this is the 8th starter added on this list, meaning that 8 of the 11 starters lost to free agency have now been replaced.
That still leaves three positions left to compete for, but that isn’t cause for concern because two of those spots already have players that can be penciled in as starters.
All that’s left to iron out are the roster battles.
These are the remaining question marks by all accounts (excluding special teams because it is impossible to predict special teams).
1. There’s a tight end free-for-all.
This is the one position where you could make a case for several different players. Assuming that the Titans stick with their identity of multiple tight ends looks being a featured part of the offense, the team is going to need two starters.
Anthony Firkser is clearly the best option as a receiving threat and he is going to be on the field a lot, the question is just how effective can he be as a blocker.
That leaves a four-way battle for the other tight end spot that will come down to UDFAs Miller Forristall, Briley Moore, Tory Carter, and the incumbent Geoff Swaim.
2. Can anyone beat Amani Hooker?
Short answer, no.
Slightly longer answer, Hooker had an argument that he was the second-best defensive back on the field for the Titans last year and on a per snap basis he was probably at the top of the list. Kenny Vaccaro was very good for the Titans, but Hooker’s coverage ability and hands make him an easy projection to start beside Kevin Byard.
3. Let’s talk about the other, other wide receiver
Last but not least, who is the fourth wide receiver for the Tennessee Titans? Last year the trio of Corey Davis, A.J. Brown, and Adam Humphries played a combined 1,784 snaps but 753 snaps on offense went to a revolving door of receivers that served as the fourth receiver for Tennessee.
With A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, and Josh Reynolds as the top three receivers, that leaves Dez Fitzpatrick, Cam Batson, Racey McMath, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine all fighting to prove that they deserve the lion’s share of those reps.