Firkser is key for Titans.
The Tennessee Titans decided that their free agency money was better spent elsewhere and they let tight end Jonnu Smith set the market for tight ends when he signed with the New England Patriots.
A lot of Titans fans were upset by this, and I get it. Smith was impressive at times and flashed the ability to make key plays when they mattered. But don’t forget, that was the finished version of Jonnu Smith, not what the Titans got from day 1.
Two years ago, Jonnu Smith was supposed to be the heir-apparent for Delanie Walker. But when Despite Walker missed all but one of the regular season games in 2018, Smith finished the season with just 258 yards and 3 touchdowns which was disappointing and cast doubt on if he really was the guy.
Fans weren’t optimistic about life after Walker who had just shown how good a tight end could look in that offense posting his 4th straight 800+ yard season and his 3rd straight Pro Bowl season.
In his third year in the NFL, Smith finally started to show signs of development and looked much more consistent and well-rounded, and the rest is history.
The reason I bring all of this up is because it was always a leap of faith that Jonnu Smith would become the versatile weapon that he eventually became and it took time and patience to get there.
So keep an open mind when I say that there is a legitimate reason to suspect that Anthony Firkser might be a key part of this offense going forward, not only in his current role (primarily a slot receiver) but as the team’s top tight end.
Anthony Firkser the tight end
In all likelihood, Anthony Firkser is going to walk into the 2021 season as the top tight end in the Tennessee Titans offense. Even if the Titans drafted a tight end, that position is historically slow to develop and we have seen the Titans groom tight ends for years before letting them start (which is the whole point of this article).
In the Titans offense, having a balanced tight end is important, but don’t put too much emphasis on how big of a deal run blocking is for a tight end. It is very rare that a tight end is asked to drive 260+ lb. defenders off of the ball and even rarer in this offense because blocking is more about running to a spot and walling off defenders.
Keeping in mind how important short-area quickness is in this scheme, it is interesting to see how Firkser and Smith stacked up in their agility drills:
Anthony Firkser: 4.29 short shuttle, 7.06 3-cone
Jonnu Smith: 4.18 short shuttle, 7.43 3-cone
So putting those numbers into context, it means that Smith had a better chance of beating the defender to a spot laterally, but Firkser’s athleticism is more suited to climbing up to the second level and walling off linebackers.
Now, the most forgotten note in all of this tight end discussion is that the Titans will never be forced to ask Firkser to block the toughest EDGE or LB on the field. The beauty of a tight end like Firkser is that you can line him up as a wing/H-back and move him before the snap after you see the alignment of the defense.
Between Geoff Swaim and Khari Blasingame, the Titans can create their own matchups using a second tight end or a fullback.
All of these things combine to explain how Firkser can be the TE1 in this offense without putting him in a position to be outmatched as a blocker. Now let’s talk about why this new role isn’t going to hinder him as a part-time slot receiver.
Anthony Firkser the receiver
This one doesn’t take any imagination or projection if you remember what the Titans did with Firkser last year. Most people know that in 2020 Anthony Firkser played more snaps in the slot than as a traditional tight end.
Something that you might not know and something that drives this point home is that Anthony Firkser actually led the Titans in snaps from the slot this season, so for all intents and purposes, Firkser already was Tennessee’s starting slot receiver.
But the question is, how can Firkser be the TE1 and the team’s primary slot receiver. Well, it not as complicated as it may sound.
First, let’s talk about how rarely the Titans even use a third receiver.
Thanks to the incredible work of Warren Sharp, we 2020 the Tennessee Titans personnel groups broke down like this:
11 personnel (3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB): 38% (31st in the NFL)
12 personnel (2 WR, 2 TE, 1RB): 35% (Most in the NFL)
21 personnel (2 WR, 1 TE, 2 RB): 10% (9th in the NFL)
22 personnel (1 WR, 2 TE, 2 RB): 4% (12th in the NFL)
13 personnel (1 WR, 3 TE, 1 RB): 9% (3rd in the NFL)
What that tells us is that the Titans love to have their tight ends on the field as frequently as possible. 48% of their offensive plays came from formations with multiple tight ends on the field, tied for most in the NFL with the Cleveland Browns.
So the role of the slot wide receiver was already diminished in this offense.
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The second part of this question is, what happens when Firkser is asked to play those snaps as the Titans slot receiver.
Geoff Swaim was re-signed before free agency started and that is good because I think he would be the next man up as the TE1 if Firkser moved into the slot.
Then, moving into the TE2 spot to replace him (if this was a scenario where they were all on the field) would be a competition between Khari Blasingame who has played a handful of reps at the position in the past, and Jared Pinkney.
If that name sounds familiar to you, it is probably because he was hyped up as a potential top-100 pick before his final season at Vanderbilt. If that name doesn’t sound familiar to you, it is probably because he tested poorly and went undrafted and the Titans signed him to a futures deal earlier this offseason.
Now, again, a tight end could be brought in to be the TE2 or TE3 if the Titans wanted to, but that shouldn’t have anything to do with what Firkser is asked to do.
After talking about how and why the Titans could use Firkser as the TE1 and the SWR, let’s talk about what it would look like in the box score.
Anthony Firkser production projection
Firkser isn’t going to be the third receiver on every single package with three receivers, but neither was Adam Humphries. Between Kalif Raymond, Cameron Batson and Humphries, the third wide receiver on the field looked a little bit different from game to game.
This is an imperfect projection, but let’s assume that trend continues. If the Titans give Firkser the same number of targets that Jonnu Smith had as the TE1 and give him the same targets that Humphries got in almost half a season as the slot receiver, his 2021 statline would look like this:
2021 projection: 100 targets, 74 receptions, 550 receiving yards, 3 TDs
So, is that realistic? Well…yes, in fact, it is probably too conservative.
The volume will absolutely be there because the Titans still have to replace nearly 250 targets from the passing game last year, 100 of which went to Jonnu Smith and Adam Humphries.
Keep in mind that Firkser actually had 53 targets last year, so this isn’t even doubling his target volume despite all indications being that he is going to be much more involved in the passing game this season.
His career catch percentage is 74.2% and I actually used his 2020 yards per target number which was 7.3. If I had used his career yards per target number, his receiving yards would have been 620 yards.
TL;DR
The fact is, blocking from tight ends is a little overrated and all you really need to be able to do is create a lane for a running back, not bulldoze your assignment. On top of that, running efficiency has nothing to do with how successful play action passes are, so even if he isn’t a great run blocker, the play action offense should still put the skill players in situations where they can continue to be extremely efficient.
Combine that with personnel usage making it easy for Firkser to pull double duty as the slot receiver and the TE1, and you can see why adding receivers might not be as much of an immediate concern for the Titans front office as it is for Titans fans.
They know they have a secret weapon up their sleeve and his floor for production in a healthy season would make him the most productive tight end not named Delanie Walker since 2012 (Jared Cook), easily replacing receiving yards left by Adam Humphries and Jonnu Smith.