Titans decision to franchise tag Jonnu Smith should be a no-brainer

Easy franchise tag decision for the Titans.

The Tennessee Titans are now allowed to apply the franchise tag to a player if they want to, and Jonnu Smith is a no-brainer candidate.

Smith, Corey Davis, and Jayon Brown are the Titans “big three” free agents this year. For my money, Corey Davis is the best of the three players and I think that he is the only one whose production you can’t replace in free agency this year (unless you are willing to spend more money that it would have taken to keep him).

Despite that,  Smith should get the tag because it is just so much cheaper to tag a tight end than a linebacker or a wide receiver.

Looking at the most recent projections, the difference is going to be somewhere in the ball park of $6 million:

There are some people who look at the cost of a transition tag and think that it makes more sense to use that, but there is a problem with that. A transition tag is cheaper, but if another team offers Jonnu Smith a better deal, then the Titans either have to match that deal or let him walk for no compensation.

That is just too risky for someone who is going to draw as much interest as Smith, which is why I think he is destined for the franchise tag.

So after Smith is tagged, there are really only three scenarios for what happens next.

Scenario 1: Work on a new deal

The Titans have a two-week period where they can make their decision on whether or not they should give Jonnu Smith the tag, but if they make it through that window without a new deal or a tag he is as good as gone.

If no deal is struck or if no tag is applied, it means that the team and the player weren’t even close in negotiations and that they are willing to let someone else “overpay” for the player.

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A way to extend those negotiations is to give a player the tag while working on a new deal. Maybe the Titans want to make some splashy moves in free agency and they want to put contract negotiations on hold with Smith.

Using this as a bridge (like Titans GM Jon Robinson did with Derrick Henry last year) lets the first wave of free agency pass and let both sides re-evaluate after those signings are over.

This means that the cap space could look strange for a while because teams don’t have to be compliant with the salary cap until the middle of summer. So, they might look over the cap on paper, but could work on a deal that spreads Smith’s money out to fit underneath the cap by that deadline.

Either way, more time and better perspective is never a bad thing.

Scenario 2: Tag-and-trade

There is going to be a market for a tight end like Jonnu Smith, and several teams might be willing to part with a top-100 draft pick to get him.

Teams like the Seattle Seahawks, Atlanta Falcons, New York Giants, New England Patriots, and Carolina Panthers are among the teams with reported interest in Smith or teams where TE is viewed as a top-need by TDN.

At just under $10 million for the 2021 season, Smith would have the 5th highest AAV among TEs and I think that he would be worth that for a lot of teams.

One team to watch closely here that I didn’t mention above was the New York Jets. Robert Saleh is coming from San Francisco where he saw George Kittle thrive and the Jets have the 2nd most cap space in the NFL right now.

On top of that, they also have five draft picks in the top-100 including two 3rd round picks. If a deal popped up where the Titans were offered the 66th pick in the draft for Jonnu Smith, I would have a hard time saying no.

Scenario 3: Play out the 2021 season and revisit after

You are going to hear a lot of people say, “This is a great* year to be a free agent!”

*If you play a premier position and want to get more guaranteed money than usual spread out over a longer time.

Jonnu Smith isn’t in that situation. Tight ends aren’t highly valued in the NFL and on paper it is hard to get behind giving a long-term contract to a tight end who has never had more than 500 yards.

I would argue that no team in the NFL is going to value Jonnu Smith as much as the Titans will, with the exception of the Atlanta Falcons who just hired his long time position coach/offensive coordinator as their new Head Coach.

If Jonnu Smith stays, I would imagine that he would become a bigger part of the passing game with Adam Humphries as a strong cut candidate and with Corey Davis potentially hitting free agency.

A year where Smith stays in an offense he knows and becomes more involved as a receiver would increase his free agent value and also give him exposure to more teams who would have to play against him.

I think this is the best option for both Smith and the Titans, but like nearly everything in free agency, it is mostly about agreeing on how much money Smith deserves.