Titans get to play against Carson Wentz.
Tennessee Titans fans, welcome Carson Wentz to the AFC South and meet your new favorite quarterback.
Carson Wentz is a player that Titans fans might not know a lot about because there just isn’t a lot of crossover between the AFC South and the NFC East. The last time that some Titans fans saw Wentz was when Marcus Mariota was leading Tennessee to an overtime win at home against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Since then, Wentz’s tape has only gotten worse.
While his numbers over the last three seasons don’t look bad, when you break them down year-by-year you see a very concerning trend.
Let’s look at four big quarterback stats over those three years: TD%, INT%, average net yards per attempt, and sacks percentage. You may notice that all of these stats exclude total volume, and that is because Wentz has missed nine games over the last three years, so this is the only fair way to compare.
2018: TD%: 5.2, INT%: 1.7%, ANY/A: 6.89, sack%: 7.2%
2019: TD%: 4.4, INT%: 1.2%, ANY/A: 6.26, sack%: 5.7%
2020: TD%: 3.7, INT%: 3.4%, ANY/A: 3.98, sack%: 10.3%
Every single number was much worse in 2020 compared to 2018 and in most cases, the numbers steadily fell year by year.
This is a very bad sign for the Colts because they made a deal the is only a good deal for them if they are getting the 2019 version of Carson Wentz. Even then I’m not sure they got a good value for reasons I will talk about now…
The real trade details
Let’s start with the common knowledge about the trade.
The Indianapolis Colts traded a 3rd round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and a conditional 2nd round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Here is where it gets interesting, that 2nd round pick becomes a 1st round pick if Carson Wentz either:
-Plays 75% of the snaps
or
-Plays 70% of the snaps and the team makes the playoffs
What that really means
Since 2012 there has only been one season where a quarterback hasn’t played 75% of the snaps or more for the Indianapolis Colts. That was back in 2015 when Andrew Luck starting getting injured and it began the slow descent towards his retirement.
In all likelihood that means that this deal is Carson Wentz for a 1st round pick (2022) and a 3rd round pick.
What comes along with that deal is his contract. The Colts have plenty of cap space and they were always going to have to spend to get a quarterback. However, they are picking up a deal that starts with $25 million all guaranteed in 2020.
That number might not seem like much, but a better way to describe it is nearly 40% of the cap space they had in 2020.
Normally having the 4th most cap space is a good thing, but keep in mind that the Colts are still missing a left tackle, a WR1, two starting EDGEs, and two of their top three cornerbacks.
Those are some expensive positions to fill.
And if they think they can take minimal cap hits in 2021 and backload them for 2022, they need to remember that Darius Leonard, Quenton Nelson, and Braden Smith are up for new contracts as well.
It will be very interesting to see what happens with the Colts during this free agent process…
Shaking up the draft
Philadelphia traded Carson Wentz to the Colts because they like their backup quarterback Jalen Hurts. However, the rumor is that they might only like him as a backup and that they could definitely be in play for a quarterback in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Meanwhile, the Colts have addressed their QB problem and they are going to have to be very careful how they spend their first (and second) round pick. With only four picks in the top-100 over the next two years, they have severely limited their flexibility.
With the Eagles needing a quarterback and the Colts needing to fill one of their big needs in the draft, I did a mock draft using Dane Brugler’s top-100 as a guide and TDN’s mock draft machine as the tool. Here is what happened with the Eagles, Colts, and Titans in that draft.
Round 1, pick 6: Philadelphia Eagles select Trey Lance QB, North Dakota State
-This would be incredibly ironic and I think that they would prefer any of the other big-four quarterbacks in this draft, but the last time the Eagles drafted a North Dakota State QB they did have the best run in franchise history before it all collapsed so…who knows?
Round 1, pick 21: Indianapolis Colts select Azeez Ojulari EDGE, Georgia
-Personally, I have sworn off of taking Georgia players in the top-100 until a good one comes along, but the Colts can’t afford to be picky. They get Dane Brugler’s top EDGE in this class and 16th ranked player.
Round 1, pick 22: Tennessee Titans select Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoa LB, Notre Dame
-LB is not the biggest issue for the Tennessee Titans, but I think they are going to go out and get an impact EDGE in free agency this year. With Jayon Brown likely leaving, David Long is penciled in to take over the starting job opposite Rashaan Evans.
However, Evans shouldn’t be a lock to start next year based on his 2020 tape and J.O.K. is an electric LB who can really play anywhere outside of the trenches on defense. He played the bulk of his 2020 snaps as an overhang defender playing outside the tackle or lined up in the slot, and he has the athleticism to make plays from anywhere on the field.
Imagine a front with Harold Landry, Jeffery Simmons, DaQuan Jones, J.J. Watt, and J.O.K. is roving around the second level making plays like a bigger version of Tyrann Mathieu or Devin White. I’m all in on that.