Tennessee Titans state of the roster heading into free agency

Titans roster analysis.

While the rest of the AFC South implodes around the Tennessee Titans, I wanted to give everyone a rundown of what the Titans needs are heading into free agency.

I was planning on waiting until the team restructured contracts and/or made cuts, but since J.J. Watt was released, the timetable of the Titans free agency plans probably just accelerated.

Since GM Jon Robinson was hired, we have seen an even-hand approach in building through free agency/trades and through the draft.

So, I’m going to look at how the current roster is constructed, what needs they have, and some things to keep an eye on going forward including a potential J.J. Watt signing.

Some disclaimers though, I am going to assume that Todd Downing is going to run the same offense as Arthur Smith and that this team isn’t going to shift to a four-wide offense or even an offense that uses three-wide sets that often.

Likewise, on defense, I am going to assume that Shane Bowen is going to run a “defense” similar to what he did last season which means more looks with three defensive linemen than traditional 4-3 looks even if they do typically play with four men on the line.

More on that later, first let’s start with how the roster has been constructed.

Roster construction

Assuming that the Titans are going to run their base offense and defense, here is how the starters were added to the roster (excluding free agents like Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith, etc.)

Trade/free agency (6):

-LG Rodger Saffold

-C Ben Jones

-RT Dennis Kelly (trade)

-QB Ryan Tannehill (trade)

-CB Malcolm Butler

-S Kenny Vaccaro

Draft (9): 

-OT Taylor Lewan (1st round)

-DL Jeffery Simmons (1st round)

-LB Rashaan Evans (1st round)

-CB Adoree Jackson (1st round)

-RB Derrick Henry (2nd round)

-WR A.J. Brown (2nd round)

-EDGE Harold Landry (2nd round)

-RG Nate Davis (3rd round)

-S Kevin Byard (3rd round)

Scheduled free agents from free agency/trade (3):

-TE MyCole Pruitt

-DL Jack Crawford

-CB Desmond King

Scheduled free agents from free agency (4)

-WR Corey Davis

-TE Jonnu Smith

-DL DaQuan Jones

-LB Jayon Brown

So what does that mean?

That shows us that you can expect Titans GM Jon Robinson to try to divide the team’s needs between free agency and the draft.

While the bulk of the Titans starters have come from the draft, 10 of the 22 starter last year came through either trades or free agency. That means that Robinson isn’t so set in his ways that he believes that “the only way you can build is through the draft” like some GMs.

What needs do the Titans have?

In the last slide, I listed seven players who were impending free agents that started on the Titans defense last year. One wide receiver, one slot cornerback, one linebacker, two defensive linemen, and two tight ends.

But that really doesn’t tell the story of what the needs of the 2021 Titans team will look like.

All of those players aren’t leaving massive voids on the roster though. For example, I think Teair Tart should be looked at as a rotational starter in 2021 taking away some of the sting left behind by Jones and Crawford.

Could the Titans still bring in a stud defensive tackle or 5-tech to upgrade the position? Sure, but in terms of need, I think they will only “need” to bring in one defensive lineman or EDGE depending on how much of that three defensive lineman front they want to use next year.

Jayon Brown is a free agent, but I think it is going to be VERY hard to re-sign him when you can basically get the same production from David Long for $10 million less per season.

Slot cornerback is interesting because Desmond King was a nice trade, but the plan next season is to have Adoree Jackson, Malcolm Butler, and Kristian Fulton as the opening day starters. With backups like Breon Borders and Chris Jackson waiting in the wings, I don’t see cornerback as a real need.

At tight end, Anthony Firkser is an RFA and they have been so good at getting something out of nothing (no offense) with guys like MyCole Pruitt, Geoff Swaim, and Anthony Frisker. I’m not sure whether breaking the bank for Jonnu Smith is a good call considering the drop off might not be that bad.

Need rankings

After looking at the returning talent on the roster and the tendencies of this team, I think the Titans have 5 positions that they need to address. In order of importance:

1. EDGE

At the beginning of the 2020 season the EDGE depth chart for the Titans looked promising, but not like a dominant unit.

Harold Landry was a mainstay on the defense and at worst, he is a very good utility player who will do exactly what you ask him to do whether you want him to drop in coverage, rush the passer, stop the run, or even play off the ball.

Then you had the Vic Beasley and Derrick Roberson who were supposed to make up for cutting Cameron Wake. These two were supposed to be the designated pass rushers whose only job was to bring pressure on 3rd downs.

Kamalei Correa and Jadeveon Clowney were supposed to be the base down EDGEs and rotate with Harold Landry to keep everyone fresh.

Three of those guys will be on different teams after free agency and Roberson didn’t do enough to make a compelling case for a major role in 2021.

An EDGE who is expected to play 80% or more of the snaps needs to be added, and likely depth behind that as well.

2. Wide Reciever

The Titans shouldn’t let Corey Davis hit the open market. It would be a bad move and unlike when they let Jack Conklin walk, there is no clear replacement on the roster for him.

What makes it even worse is that the Titans (likely) wouldn’t get a 3rd round compensatory pick like they did for Conklin last year.

It isn’t every day that fans are ready to let one of the most efficient players in the NFL at his position walk, but Titans fans really don’t seem to understand how good Corey Davis has been over the last two years given the limitations of an offense that ran through Derrick Henry getting so many carries.

He shouldn’t be allowed to even think about free agency, but if he does leave then the Titans will likely have to replace him and Adam Humphries who is very likely to be a cap cut.

3. Defensive line

If the Titans add a bigger EDGE, let’s say someone listed at 6’5, nearly 290 lb., then this is only really a position that could be upgraded in the offseason, not a position of need because they would have a player who could fill the EDGE and the “other” defensive line role.

If they don’t add this mystery man (let’s just call him Justin James) then they will need to address the defensive line.

Jeffery Simmons is great and Teair Tart showed a lot last year, but the only other defensive lineman on the roster is Larrell Murchison who spent most of 2020 getting bullied by offensive linemen.

If you are going to run a front with three defensive linemen, then you need…well three defensive linemen, right?

4. Tight End

With Firkser still under contract, the Titans have their big slot/decent blocking tight end, but they don’t have someone that can dominate the point of attack. Whether they want that to be a very good starter like Jonnu Smith at his price point, remains to be seen.

Don’t forget, when Delanie Walker was going through his decline and eventual cut, Jonnu Smith was known as a receiver who couldn’t block. This staff believes they can create blockers out of big-bodied receiving-type tight end, and they have been right in the past.

Regardless of whether they want that stud TE1 or if they think they can make Firkser that guy, someone has to be added to the depth chart here.

5. Linebacker

So far in Jon Robinson’s tenure, he has spent a 1st round pick on Rashaan Evans, a 5th round pick on Jayon Brown, and a 6th round pick on David Long. You can argue that he has shown that he knows how to identify linebackers on Day 3, better than he has been able to in the 1st round.

Currently, the Titans defense only features two off-ball linebackers on most snaps, and when they do want to add a third player on the second level, they are comfortable with more Landry back or walking up a safety like Vaccaro.

If that is the plan, then the only need at linebacker is depth behind Rashaan Evans and David Long, though adding a difference-maker here would surely be welcome.

What to watch going forward.

Now that we know the needs, let me run you through what I am currently looking at as we approach free agency.

First and foremost, J.J. Watt’s free agency decision will be huge and it would solve a lot of problems for the Tennessee Titans. I wrote about why both parties should be very interested in making a reunion between Mike Vrabel and Watt, possible.

The idea of adding a big EDGE/DL type is an idea that keeps growing on me when you think about maximizing the offseason capital that the Titans have. Someone like Leonard Williams or Romeo Okwara through free agency makes a lot of sense. In the draft, names like Jaelan Phillips, Carlos Basham, Kwity Paye, and Patrick Jones makes sense as well.

Wide receiver is a stacked group this year, and if the Titans need someone I could see them sitting out the initial wave and seeing if they can find some value. Whether that means a big name realizes this isn’t the best market or finding a player in the second wave of free agency, there should be talent to be had here.

The dream scenario for the Titans right now has to be a team falling in love with Najee Harris and trading up with Tennessee for him. By trading with the Titans they would be jumping ahead of teams like the New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Buffalo Bills who all could be very interested in Harris.

Given the relationship, I wonder if Atlanta might offer a 2nd and a 3rd for the Titans 1st and 4th?

Robinson has traded all but one of his fourth round picks since becoming the GM, so he clearly thinks those picks are overvalued by others. Meanwhile, the Falcons are going to need a running back to run Arthur Smith’s offense.

I will likely do a mock draft with this scenario in mind soon, so stay tuned!