A.J. Brown might be even better than you realize
Let’s talk about something that most Tennessee Titans fans already know, A.J. Brown wants to be the best wide receiver in the league.
The 23-year old kid out of Ole Miss, oft-overshadowed by his flashier college teammate (DK Metcalf), thinks that he can be the best at his position in the NFL.
And you know what? He’s absolutely right. In fact, after just his second season in the league, one that saw Brown fight through an injury that team doctors suggested might keep him sidelined from Week 2 through the entire year, he might already be closer than he gets credit for.
The volume wasn’t there for Brown like it was for Bills’ star Stefon Diggs, a first-team All-Pro at the wide receiver position. The scoring production wasn’t at the same level as it was for Davante Adams, the receiver out of Green Bay, and another first-team All-Pro. His highlight-reel level plays, compared to those of another All-Pro in Tyreek Hill, Brown wasn’t quite at… actually, yeah, maybe he’s even here.
But Brown’s talent shines, even if he’s not outpacing the competition in one stat or another. Diggs may have led the league in receptions, but Brown managed more touchdown receptions than the Bills’ All-Pro, with fewer games and far fewer targets to his name. Adams might have more touchdown catches than both of them, but Brown proved to be a big-play machine in a way that Adams didn’t touch in 2020, finishing 12th in yards per reception to Adams’ 66th.
It’s the consistency that makes A.J. Brown who he is. He’s not the league’s best player at one thing, but he’s one of the league’s best players at just about everything. A threat to take the top off a defense, a threat in the red zone, a threat for contested catches, a threat in, well, everything.
Last season, I wrote about A.J. Brown— a bright rookie star with worlds of potential. Now, I write about A.J. Brown– an established master at the position who has realized that potential in just his second year in the pros. And he’s not just on pace to be great, he’s on pace to be the greatest in the league.
The Numbers
A.J. Brown finished the season with 70 catches on 106 targets in 14 total appearances. He turned 11 of those catches into touchdowns and used his opportunities to combine for 1,075 yards through the air.
Alright, some things you should know about those numbers.
A.J. Brown’s 2020 production made him one of just 18 players with over 1,000 receiving yards, one of just eight players to reach that mark with over 10 touchdowns to his name, and one of 10 players to reach the 1,000-yard receiving mark both this season– and the one before, joining a list of All-Pros at the position like DeAndre Hopkins and Tyler Lockett.
Okay, some other things that you should know about those numbers.
Because while Brown’s numbers stand well enough on their own, and put the second-year player into some rarified, All-Pro level air, they’re also due for a bit of context. A.J. Brown’s 1,075 receiving yards are great– but it has him ranked just 16th in the league. Keep in mind, however, the team Brown suits up for on Sundays.
Since Brown’s arrival to the Tennessee Titans, the offense has been one that does most of their business on the ground. Derrick Henry, the unquestioned, 2,000-yard star of the offensive show, was responsible for nearly 400 touches through the 2020 season, contributing to the Titans throwing the third-fewest passes in the league.
In the Tennessee offense, Brown had limited chance to showcase his skill compared to a few of the names in front of him on the stat sheet, especially while competing for those few passing reps with emerging young pass-catchers in Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith.
And even still, A.J. Brown flourished He still reached over 1,000 yards. He still scored 11 times. Looking at all that with volume in mind, and Brown’s case for one of the league’s best players starts to take shape.
Only one member of the 1,000-yard receiving club hit that mark on fewer receptions than Brown. Nobody that got there did so on as few targets, and only five players, a list including three All-Pro’s, had more total touchdown catches– but nobody had more on as few of targets as Brown.
Brown, even with his volume, was able to put up numbers that have him well in the ranks of the league’s elite. But with volume typically fitting of an elite receiver, Brown’s numbers would look as good as anyone, if not better.
Take Stefon Diggs’ volume, the league’s leader in targets with 166, and give it to Brown. What you get is a player who would have finished with 109 receptions based on Brown’s 66% catch rate, nearly 1,700 receiving yards based on his 15.4 yards per catch, and an astronomical 17 touchdown catches for a player averaging a touchdown every 6.36 receptions.
All this to say, A.J. Brown good.
The Film
A.J. Brown’s numbers are impressive, but as we just explored, the stat sheets don’t tell the full story of his greatness. With volume on his side, Brown could easily be one of the most statistically dominant players in the NFL.
Time and again, Brown puts together game-by-game highlight reels that showcase his strength as a wide receiver. Not the absolute best at one particular aspect of the game, but one of the best at every aspect of the game.
Brown wasn’t viewed as an incomplete prospect coming out of college– but he wasn’t seen as a sure bet either, not by any stretch. From the NFL.com’s own Lance Zierlien’s draft profile of the Titans’ star, he was seen as a quality Day One player, but one with a few areas that would need improving.
“Appears more quick than fast”
Brown’s NFL combine performance left some question marks surrounding his ability to take advantage of professional defenses. A 4.49-second 40-yard dash isn’t slow but isn’t near the mark you would expect from a player sometimes used as a deep threat in the Tennessee offense.
But Brown’s in-game speed has given the impression that his official 40-time was more of a fluke than anything else. The Titans’ receiver is quick for sure, but he also has the straight-line speed to outright just about anyone on the field.
“Needs to prove he can work downfield against NFL speed”
On highlights and TV broadcasts, Brown’s ‘faster than 4.5’ speed shows up often after the catch, where the sleeper superstar is more than capable of catching a short pass over the middle and turning it into 70-yard touchdown gold. But, can he use that speed to get open before the catch against NFL defensive backs?
Of course, the broadcast version of the highlight isn’t the most flattering angle. But by the time the ball reaches Brown’s hands, he’s exactly where he needs to be to haul it in. He’s able to create just enough of a step on the defender to gain separation and earn a tough catch.
“Drops appear when focus declines”
When the ball gets anywhere near Brown’s area– he’s bringing it in. Thems just the rules, I don’t make them.
He’s done it in the playoffs, he’s done it against division rivals. And maybe drops do appear when his focus declines, but Brown is constantly locked in on 50/50 balls. His ball tracking skills are already some of the best in the league. And it’s just one part of Brown’s unrivaled game, and one of the many things that’s going to soon make him one of the best receivers in the league.
Tennessee’s Mr. Everything
A.J. Brown’s game is hard to define. What are you supposed to call a player that thrives at everything?
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Maybe you can call him a big-play threat, and you wouldn’t necessarily be wrong. Brown’s 15.4 yards per catch have him ranked 12th in the league– just one season after finishing second in that metric with a staggering 20.2. Through the last two seasons, there have been very few players who have come close to matching Brown’s ability to put up yards in chunks.
You could call him a red-zone specialist too, and you wouldn’t be wrong. Through receiving, rushing, and even one onside kick return, Brown has 21 career touchdowns to his name through his first two seasons. 19 of them have come on receptions, 11 of those have come in the red-zone, and seven of those have come with fewer than 10 yards to go to the endzone. And he doesn’t just get there with his speed, either.
You can call A.J. Brown a possession specialist for his mastery at hauling in contested catches. You can call him the toughest guy on the field, for apparently being recommended season-ending surgery in Week 2, playing through the pain, and putting together a Pro Bowl season. You can call him just about whatever.
But soon, we’ll all be calling him the greatest receiver in the league.