Will Titans OC Arthur Smith land with the Falcons, Chargers, or Texans

Will Arthur Smith leave the Titans?

Well, that escalated quickly for Tennessee Titans OC Arthur Smith.

Last year, Smith was a first-time coordinator after being a relative no-name candidate in the Titans search to replace Matt LaFleur. In fact, through the first half of that season, he hadn’t exactly endeared himself to Titans fans.

It is hard to remember now, but there was a huge emphasis on getting the ball to Dion Lewis as a runner and as a receiver that just never worked and constantly killed drives.

There were also times where Ryan Tannehill seemed to overrule Arthur Smith on plays by changing at the line of scrimmage to something he was more comfortable with. More often than not, these audibles were the best plays of the game for the Titans and it is what forced so many Titans fans to buy into Tannehill last season.

Well, fast forward to Black Monday as the league fires head coaches en masse and the hottest name on the coaching market is…Arthur Smith.

Obviously, he deserves this attention, but it is a little odd to me that he is such a hot name when his offense requires some pretty specific pieces.

Regardless, let’s try and focus on the positives and which team he has the best shot with, and I’ll start at the absolute bottom.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Current favorite: Urban Meyer

A month ago Urban Meyer would have been a shocking name to see connected with an NFL team, but now there are flights being tracked from Colombus, Ohio to Jacksonville, Florida and we even know exactly how much Urban Meyer is asking for per year.

Right now it seems like the job is Meyer’s if he wants it and there has been heavy speculation about this for weeks. So much so that Ryan Day was the assumed replacement option if Meyer said no and he has already pulled his name out of consideration for any head coaching opportunities.

Given what we know about the backroom dealings in the NFL, you can probably assume that means that Meyer is strongly leaning towards going to Jacksonville and Day didn’t want his team (who is in the National Championship) focused on anything other than the game against Alabama.

I have no idea what makes Urban Meyer an attractive candidate as an NFL head coach because so much of his success has been based on having more talent than anyone else. When that hasn’t been the main proponent of his wins, it is the offensive system that has produced more first round busts in the NFL than anything else we have seen.

Is he the architect to make it work at the next level? How will his college-style translate to jaded NFL players? I don’t know, but the Jags seem willing to be the ones that roll the dice.

Prediction: Urban Meyer

New York Jets

Current favorite: Brian Daboll, Eric Bieniemy

If I had to pick one that I trusted as a fit to New York over the other, it would be the flash and name value of Eric Bieniemy over the actual experience of Brian Daboll.

EB was supposed to be the hot name last year…until he wasn’t, and maybe that is what we are going to see with Arthur Smith this season. If you think that EB is just Arthur Smith with another year of seasoning and production, then signing him seems like the New York Jets move.

The Jets would be the most attractive job for an offensive-minded head coach because the Jets are probably going to end up with at least 6 picks in the top-100. They enter the draft with 5 picks in the top-100 anyway and they will get at least one more in a trade down for a team wanting Justin Fields or in a Sam Darnold trade.

That means that the head coach will get to pick which QB he prefers from that duo and also have a great chance to rebuild the offensive line and add weapons for them to target. That is a pretty impressive opportunity and you don’t have to deal with the potential of moving to London.

Prediction: Eric Bieniemy

Los Angeles Chargers

Current favorite: Brian Daboll

This one is easy to me, so easy that I am sure that I am wrong.

If you are the Chargers, which team does your offense resemble more the Titans or the Bills?

Coming out of the 2020 NFL Draft, the quarterback comparison for Justin Herbert was Josh Allen and he has exceeded anything that Allen did at any point in his career other than his current run. Point to the Bills.

The offensive line is a collective of free agents and draft picks mashed together who are better as pass blockers than run blockers. Point to the Bills, again.

The skill positions are good but no Derrick Henry and no A.J. Brown, so Bills again.

I don’t know, am I missing some reason why the simplest answer here isn’t to go out and sign Daboll immediately if you are going to go the offensive-minded HC route?

Maybe I am, but until I am proven wrong I am going to pencil in Daboll.

Prediction: Brian Daboll

Detroit Lions

Current favorite: Robert Saleh

Like the Urban Meyer situation, this is another one that has been telegraphed for a while now.

The story from the Detroit Free Press that I linked to has a quote from Saleh basically admits that he wants to be the Lions head coach as much as a coach can during the middle of the season:

"Saleh, the San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator, said Monday on The Adam Schefter Podcast that his family is “uber excited” about the possibility that he will replace Matt Patricia as Lions coach. “Friends in high school and all that, they blow my phone up every day and they’re super excited,” Saleh said. “But I am not lying to anybody when I genuinely can say that it would be irresponsible for me to really think about it when there’s an organization who’s counting on every person who is involved in the organization to do the best they can, and if my mind is elsewhere than there’s no way in heck I can do my best."

In the extremely rare event that you find a coach who wants to go to Detroit, you have to lock that down because there isn’t a lot of enthusiasm for that franchise even at the best of times.

Saleh is a great DC and he has done everything from take rookies and make them Pro Bowlers, to revitalizing the careers of journeymen free agents. There are coaches with similar resumes on the offensive side of the ball, but if you want to build the idea of a gritty, next-man-up football team, few coaches are going to give you that like Saleh.

Prediction: Robert Saleh

Houston Texans

Current favorite: Eric Bieniemy, Matt Eberflus

Assuming that EB doesn’t want to join an offense that is the smoldering remains of the fire sale that Bill O’Brien left behind, that means that the top offensive-minded coaches are going to go off the board quickly.

Now, Arthur Smith is a great name to fall back on, but here is where I think the psychology of a football organization comes into play.

The Texans just fired an offensive-minded coach in Bill O’Brien, and then they promoted a defensive-minded coach in Romeo Crennel. Despite that and all the injuries/suspensions that they had, the offense never really dropped off at all, in fact, it got better.

So the ownership knows that they don’t need an offensive mind to put up points, so maybe a defensive mind is better.

Eberflus has been one of the best DCs in the NFL that no one talks about, and the Texans have seen this first hand. So why not make the Colts weaker while making your team more balanced and better on a side of the ball where you desperately need improvement?

Prediction: Matt Eberflus

Atlanta Falcons

Current favorite: Eric Bieniemy, Raheem Morris

So far, the Falcons have already interviewed both of the “favorites” for the job and they have an interview scheduled for Robert Saleh tomorrow.

Throw in Arthur Smith, Bucs DC Todd Bowles, and Rams DC Brandon Staley, and you end up with 3 defensive-minded coaches and 2 offensive-minded coaches.

That suggests that the Falcons are confident that their offense can run itself with Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Calvin Ridley. What they need is someone to enhance and improve their defense and they have three candidates who can do just that.

Morris did actually improve the Falcons defense and helped salvage Atlanta’s season this year and he is farther removed from his mixed results in Tampa Bay than Todd Bowles is from his disappointment with the New York Jets.

Every year we see retreads hired to be head coaches again and I tend to think that the strongest resumes for that are Bowles and Morris, and I think Morris makes the best pitch based on what he did in a lost season.

Prediction: Raheem Morris

Back with the Tennessee Titans?

So, here we are with all of the HC jobs filled up and Arthur Smith still doesn’t have a job. Not only do I want this to happen, but I think this is the best-case scenario for everyone involved.

Unlike Matt LaFleur who made a hyperspeed jump from offensive coordinator to head coach, none of these teams has an Aaron Rodgers waiting to carry him while he struggles to find his footing as a head coach.

I think that Smith will be a good head coach when the time comes, but I think the logjam of OCs as well as college wild cards like Urban Meyer and Pat Fitzgerald (who we didn’t even talk about), it is going to be hard to land one of these jobs when the league sees your offense as Derrick Henry centric.

Next year I think the Titans are going to splice in more Darrynton Evans in the offense and I think they are going to expect a little more form whoever their third wide receiver is in 2021. That should show off the balance in this offense and prove that Arthur Smith doesn’t need a 2,000 yard running back to thrive.

Maybe he ends up in Arizona, Denver or Chicago in 2022 and he has a chance to really evaluate what he wants and what he needs to make his offense work anywhere in the NFL.

But for now, I think (and I hope) that the Titans get at least one more year from Arthur Smith.