New York Giants need to rebuild around this Tennessee Titans trade

Time for Titans and Giants to pull the trigger.

This week the Tennessee Titans won their game by 3 points, and the New York Giants lost their game by three points. That margin feels small, but history says that the gap between the two teams’ playoff chances is massive.

Now that the Titans are at 2-0, they have a great chance to make the playoff, and a win this weekend would make it very unlikely for them to miss the postseason.

On the other hand, the Giants are 0-2, and even when you don’t factor in the loss of their best player, they have a terrible chance of making the postseason.

How can I say this after just two weeks? Well, Justis Mosqueda has been on top of this for years and he has created an easy to read chart that helps you visualize what the odds are that your team will make the playoffs based on their record.

Using a decade of the most recent data, here is a look at what the odds to make the playoffs are including the new 14-team format.

So, let’s just accept that math as fact and look to the future of both of these teams. The Giants should be thinking about a way to make that offensive line better and it wouldn’t hurt to add some depth at running back to help with the recovery of Barkley in 2021.

The Titans should shift to a win-now mode, not sacrificing the future in a massive way or anything, but they should be considering moves to make the most of the statistical advantages of starting 2-0.

This all amounts to one thing that Titans fans have wanted for a long time. Bring Golden Tate home.

The Giants should get this deal done

Right now the Giants have two things going for them: long-term cap space and assets to trade.

Earlier I talked about how the Giants only have an 11% chance to make the playoffs, but that isn’t taking into account what their schedule looks like in the immediate future. Over the next three weeks, they have to play the San Francisco 49ers, L.A. Rams, Dallas Cowboys, and the last two are on the road.

Realistically, this team is about to be 0-5 and no team in history has made the playoffs from 0-5.

Last year Golden Tate struggled with injuries and every time you play him you are risking lowering the value of one of your biggest trade assets. At 32, Tate isn’t going to be the goto guy for Daniel Jones down the road, so the smart long-term play is to move him for a pick while his value is still high enough.

The hard part is convincing a team to take on a deal that is basically a 3-year, $21 million deal including this season.

I think the best-case scenario is that the Giants figure out a way to eat some of that salary now and reduce it to something closer to a 3-year, $12 million deal.

That still takes $12 million off the books over the next two years and they would project to have top-10 cap space in the NFL heading into 2021.

Bring Tate home

The Tennessee Titans wanted to sign Dont’a Hightower in free agency a few years back, but couldn’t get a deal done despite both sides wanting to see Hightower back in Tennessee.

Kevin Byard has become a star on the field and the city embraced him instantly even before he was one of the best safeties in the NFL. A big part of that is because he played his college ball at MTSU.

The fact is, Tennessee is becoming a state that produces legitimate NFL talent, and Titans fans love to cheer someone that they watched in the SEC or someone that they watched played football around Nashville at any point in their career.

This isn’t a new thing and the idea of bringing Tate home has been going on for years. Not just because he hometown, but because of what he adds to this team. Way back in 2018 when Golden Tate was with the Detroit Lions, rumors were being floated around about a potential move for Tate to come home. Bill Barnwell actually floated out the idea of a trade for a 4th round pick and Tajae Sharpe:

"“While the Lions are still giving Tate plenty of targets, the 30-year-old former Seahawks standout is in the final year of his deal and seems unlikely to return to Detroit after the breakout of Kenny Golladay. Tate is averaging 86.2 yards per game this season, so he’s still an effective weapon, but the Notre Dame product is playing less than 80 percent of the snaps on offense, leaving him well behind Marvin Jones (93.5 percent) and Golladay (89.9 percent). “"

Tate was eventually traded for a 3rd round pick to the Philadelphia Eagles and wound up with 795 yards and 4 touchdowns. Oh yea, and he caught the game-winning touchdown pass in their lone playoff win vs the Chicago Bears which feels important to mention.

Think of a world where fans aren’t wishing for a player like A.J. Brown to rush back from an injury because they have a competent backup/rotational receiver who can give the team something similar to what Brown can do.

The questions are, does he still have it and how much will he cost?

What does he have left and how much will it cost?

The New York Giants posted a video on their account showing exactly what I mean when I say that Tate is a good fill-in for A.J. Brown’s role. This is from last season:

He clearly has plenty left in the tank, and the Tennessee Titans are one injury away from needing to play Cam Batson and Kalif Raymond as the starters. That just can’t happen to a team with playoff aspirations that aren’t getting what they need from the running game yet.

Assuming that the Giants rework his contract to make it work for the Titans, then I think you could argue that a 4th round pick is the right price for Golden Tate and a 6th round pick.

In 2018 the Eagles got him for a 3rd round pick knowing that they would likely get a compensatory pick to offset that loss, which they did (a 4th round pick). Given his age and the role he would play, this feels like a deal worth roughly the equivalent of a 5th round pick, but Tennessee Titans GM has made magic with 5th round picks and he loves to trade 4th round picks so I made that work.

For Giants fans, a quick mock draft of what a four-round draft class with the extra pick could look like, I used PFN’s mock draft simulator and got:

1: Ja’Marr Chase WR, LSU

2: Wyatt Davis iOL, Ohio State

3: Journey Brown RB, Penn State

4: Garret Wallow LB, TCU

4: Justyn Ross WR, Clemson

So the Giants get more cap space and a pick that turns into Justyn Ross and the Titans get a player that helps solidify their offense as they push to make it beyond the AFC Championship Game this season.

Win-Wins are fun.