Fresh off an AFC Championship game appearance, expectations are high in Nashville for the 2020 season.
Something the national media forgets, and fans can’t stop thinking about is that the Tennessee Titans have finished each of the last four regular seasons with a 9-7 record.
Granted the Titans ended the 2019 NFL season with two additional wins in the playoffs, but nonetheless, fans are ready to get over that 9-7 hump. Could 2020 be the year the Titans make the regular season leap?
The Titans are returning franchise QB Ryan Tannehill along with superstar RB Derrick Henry. Continuity is a huge part of success in the NFL, and that should bode well for the Titans.
In my opinion, the Titans need to win the AFC South in 2020. Yes, the team has had some playoff success as a wildcard team, but getting that division crown and home playoff game would do wonders for this team and fanbase.
With the Jacksonville Jaguars in the midst of another rebuild (that can be traced back to one game vs Derrick Henry), the Colts starting over with an aging QB and the Texans trading away their best player for peanuts, the division should be ripe for the taking.
However, the NFL is unpredictable, and the game isn’t played on paper.
I believe a fifth-straight 9-7 regular season for the Titans would be a complete disappointment. Coming off an AFC Championship game appearance, an AFC South crown should be the bare minimum expectation. Today I am going to take you through 3 scenarios for how the Titans 2020 season could unfold.
First, we’ll take a look at the best-case scenario, which will assume everything goes perfectly for the team.
Next, we’ll look at the worst-case scenario. This will assume everything goes wrong, from injuries to underperformance to coaching.
Lastly, I’ll finish with the most likely scenario. How I think the season will actually end up.
Let’s get to it.
Best Case Scenario
2019 could not have gone much better for Ryan Tannehill.
With a full offseason, and his role as starting QB firmly entrenched, let’s assume 2020 brings more of the same for Tannehill. In 2019, including playoffs, Tannehill threw for over 3,000 yards. Now, assuming a full 16 game season, it would not be a stretch to say Tannehill will eclipse the 4,000-yard mark in 2020.
This would go down as the greatest-ever season passing-wise by a Titans QB. Tannehill is flanked by reigning rushing champ Derrick Henry, who will once again run all over the league. The Titans offense will be exciting to watch, and possibly a top-10 unit in the league.
While Henry might not break 1500 yards again, it would not be a stretch to assume he’ll pick up around 1300 or so.
AJ Brown will continue his dominance, and he’ll have to in order for Tannehill to reach 4,000 yards passing.
The Titans defense will look very similar to the 2019 unit, and that’s a good thing. Harold Landry resumes his reign of dominance, with an added contribution from Vic Beasley and D’Andre Walker on the edge.
With a schedule that shouldn’t scare anybody, the Titans clinch the AFC South crown and reach the AFC Championship Game for a second consecutive season.
Record: 12-4, AFC South crown, AFC Championship appearance
Worst Case Scenario
Now let’s get pessimistic.
In this scenario, the wheels fall completely off. Tannehill shows that his magical run in 2019 was a fluke, and he regresses to the injury-prone Dolphins QB of old. If Tannehill goes down, newly-signed Trevor Siemian is thrust into action, just a year removed from a serious injury of his own.
With Siemian at the helm, the Titans offense struggles mightily. Derrick Henry is unable to recapture his 2019 magic, and cannot shoulder the weight of the entire offense. Titan opponents load the box and dedicate each week to stopping Derrick Henry, and the Titans sputter.
A Tannehill injury would be devastating for team performance and morale, and could greatly hinder the production of Derrick Henry and AJ Brown.
On defense, recent free agent signee Vic Beasley can’t get it together, and might not even suit up for the Titans. This leaves Harold Landry on an island, and the Titans pass rush looks anemic all season. The secondary, burdened by the lack of pass-rush, struggles without Logan Ryan.
I believe even if this terrifying scenario unfolds, Vrabel and Co. will be safe for at least another year but expect Vrabel to feel the heat if this scenario comes to fruition.
The Titans finish with a top-five draft pick, and we are all sad.
Record: 5-11, Top Five Draft pick
Most Realistic Scenario
Realistically, you probably shouldn’t expect Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill to double-down on their respective career years in 2020.
That’s not to say they won’t still be great, however. I’m expecting Pro Bowl-caliber years out of Henry and Tannehill again in 2020, and that will be a crucial factor in determining the Titans’ success. AJ Brown will have an above-average year, and fully cement himself as a star receiver in this league.
The Titans’ schedule is middle-of-the-pack, and assuming the team is mostly healthy, they should have no problem getting back to the familiar territory of 9 wins. I expect the Titans’ offense to be Top 15, but due to the lack of complementary pieces, I don’t see a top 10 unit here.
As for the defense, it seems like Jadeveon Clowney won’t be coming to Nashville, but I think that’s ok. D’Andre Walker has something to prove, and Harold Landry has proven himself to be a star in the making. Logan Ryan will be missed, but Johnathan Joseph and rookie Kristian Fulton will adequately make up for the loss. The Titans had a middle-of-the-pack defensive unit last year, but I’m expecting an improvement in 2020.
Vic Beasley and D’Andre Walker help Landry form an admirable pass-rush, and Rashaan Evans and Jayon Brown make up the best MLB duo in the league. Throw in possibly the best safety duo in the league, and you get a top-10 unit.
Not be overlooked, but the Titans kicking in 2020 literally cannot be any worse than it was last year.
I expect the Titans to finally eclipse the 9-win purgatory, and 10 wins should be enough to clinch the division in a so-so AFC South.