What would a 500 point Titans team look like?
Some things just sound hyperbolic when you say them, so it makes sense that you might be coming into this article thinking that it is clickbait or something, but the Tennessee Titans could actually score 500 points this year.
It would take some luck, but just for a little bit of a spoiler, the franchise scored more than 400 points this year for just the fourth time in the Super Bowl era (post-1970). That happened despite some pretty formidable obstacles.
Three teams did it in 2018, so it isn’t some mythical number that only happens every so often. So then you would think that it is only the teams that pass the ball 50 times per game, right?
Well not so fast because the Baltimore Ravens did it in 2019 and they led the NFL in rush attempts. That may sound like it was close, but it wasn’t because they had 596 attempts and the San Francisco 49ers came in second with 498 attempts, meaning that the Ravens had nearly 100 more attempts than the 49ers.
Again, in case that isn’t enough context the Ravens were so run focused that the gap in rush attempts between them and the 49ers, was more than the gap between the 49ers and the New Orleans Saints who were16th in rush attempts last year.
History shows that no matter how you want to move the ball, 500 points is possible. So, what would the Titans need to do to hit that number? Let’s start with what they did last season.
Recap of the Tannehill era
The Tennessee Titans finished the season averaging 25.1 points per game, which was great considering that they have spent the majority of the 2000s/2010s in the “teens”. Not to remind anyone of the heartbreak, but that does include the first six weeks of the season before Marcus Mariota was benched.
Following that shutout, the Titans went ahead with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback and averaged 30.4 points per game.
People expect regression from Ryan Tannehill this year, but even if that happens it will probably be less than the public thinks. Tannehill wasn’t asked to throw the ball 50+ times per game, but he was huge in the offense because of his mind and his athleticism.
Mentally, he was at the line of scrimmage making things happen. Not only was he reading the defense presnap to figure out his options, but he was also given more and more freedom calling plays. Ultimately, he ended up changing the Titans’ biggest play of the postseason when he audibled against the Baltimore Ravens and hit Kalif Raymond deep to put the Titans up 14-0.
Athletically, he has been able to make plays on the ground, which keeps the defense honest and forces them to defend every blade of grass. Even if all 11 guys are thinking it is a Derrick Henry run, they have to respect that on any given play Tannehill could keep it on the bootleg.
Still, that total only adds up to 486 points. What needs to change to get to 500?
What needs to change
In my head, there are three clear ways for the Titans to get more points out of this offense in 2020. The first is fairly obvious, but they have to be able to make field goals.
Try not to get sick, but last year the Titans made just 44.4% of their field goals in what has to have been the worst performance by a group of kickers in a long time. The average team made nearly twice that with 81.6%.
If the Titans have an average kicking game, they would hit 81.6% of their 31 field goal attempts. That means they would score on 25 kicks and wind up with 75 points off of field goals instead of just 24 points in 2019.
Secondly, getting more targets to A.J. Brown and Jonnu Smith is going to be huge. Those two are yards after the catch waiting to happen, and the Titans now have had a full offseason to plan around those two as starters.
Continuity is key this offseason and immediately getting those two as involved as they were last season will be huge for this offense.
Finally, the running backs can still be more productive. Derrick Henry is great, and I’m not asking any more of him, but the combination of Dion Lewis and Dalyn Dawkins combined to average 3.6 yards per carry last season behind Henry.
Darrynton Evans is expected to be much better than that, and it will really help that he should get a full season of Taylor Lewan, Nate Davis and Rodger Saffold (the good version).
If those three things happen, then they will be in great shape.
Is it possible?
In a word? Absolutely.
I mean, why not? Everyone is so caught up talking about regression from Tannehill that they aren’t looking at the upside that the Titans have on offense.
Let’s say Ryan Tannehill can’t match his 30.1 points per game standard and that the truth is somewhere in the middle of the 25.1 points per game that they averaged for the season. Splitting the difference in those numbers brings you to 27.6 points per game.
That adds up to 442 points. So where are the other 58?
Greg Joseph has made 85% of his career field goals, and if the Titans just get to the average of 31 field goal attempts per year, that means that you can expect 54 more points from the kicker this season.
So where are those last four points?
The question now, is can Darryton Evans produce more than Dion Lewis and Dalyn Dawkins on the same number of carries? The two combined for 90 touches and one touchdown all year, so if Evans can get just two touchdowns that would bring the Titans up to 503 points.
For the first time in the Super Bowl era, the Titans would join the 500 point club and it really isn’t a hard path.