You dorks need to stop pretending that Derrick Henry won’t be a fantasy legend.
Writing about the Tennessee Titans is a difficult job. After months worth of offseason articles, finding unique ways to say “Derrick Henry is good at football” that hasn’t already been used is becoming an increasingly difficult task.
But, you can’t write about the Tennessee Titans without at least mentioning the obvious fact, no matter how many times it’s been written. Derrick Henry is good at football. Both real-life football and fantasy football too.
You won’t find many detractors to either of those camps either. Henry is regularly talked about like an RB1, both in actual football and the fantasy realm. But questions about specifically how good Derrick Henry can be in fantasy continue to pop up for PPR (points per reception) fantasy experts–all of which are based around one central concern.
Derrick Henry does not catch passes.
Henry may have been the NFL’s leading rusher in 2019. He may have led the league in carries, and he may have finished fourth in the league in total scrimmage yards– while being the only player in the top five to not appear in all 16 games.
But Derrick Henry does not catch passes.
Henry may be set for an even better 2020 season than he had in 2019. He will once again be the undisputed feature running back, and ideally, he’ll be getting a full schedule of Ryan Tannehill as his quarterback. In the nine games Henry played with Tannehill– he managed to break 23 fantasy points in six of them, a feat he managed just once in the six weeks before Tannehill.
But alas, Derrick Henry does not catch passes.
If you’re a fantasy football player in a PPR league, Derrick Henry’s 24 total passing targets in 2019 could be scary, especially without any reason to believe that his passing volume will go up any in 2020. But for all that Henry is as a runner, he can more than make up for it. If you’re looking for a running back for your fantasy team this year, no matter what the league setup is, Derrick Henry should be your top choice of anyone not named Christian McCaffrey.
Derrick Henry Rules: Here’s Why
Passing volume for running backs can be an exciting proposition for PPR leagues. Running backs often catch the large majority of their targets, so if they get targeted a lot, it’s free points. Derrick Henry doesn’t have that perk– but he doesn’t need it. Rather, Henry makes up for his lack of passing volume through a heavy workload on the ground, efficient running, and an elite nose for the endzone.
Henry wasn’t just trusted as the Titans’ clear top running back, he was trusted by the team to carry the entire offense. You can see that in his carries, where just he and the Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliott were given the ball more than 300 times.
And through that heavy rushing workload, Henry began to shine. The high-volume is what helped the Titans’ star reach over 1,500 rushing yards and over 1,700 scrimmage yards in just 15 games, and for as much success has Tennessee had with their running game in the back half of the season, there’s no reason to think that Henry’s volume will decrease to the point where he can’t reach those numbers again.
But more than just volume, Henry was an elite fantasy asset because of what he was able to do with those carries. Because not only did Derrick Henry get more carries than anyone in the NFL, but he also managed to be vastly more efficient on the ground than any other running back near his volume.
Henry’s 5.1 yards per carry in 2019 were elite by any standard, but that level of efficiency matched with as much running volume as Henry had is what makes Henry such a valuable fantasy player for 2020.
In fact, to find the next highest-volume runner with more yards per carry than Henry, you have to go all the way down to Lamar Jackson, who had 6.9 yards a carry– but just 176 runs in 2019.
Maybe that’s a pace that Henry can’t keep up, but there’s reason to believe that he can. In his four years as a professional running back, he’s only had one season below 4.5 yards per carry, and his efficiency has been steadily increasing since his second year in the NFL.
The Touchdown Titan
But Henry’s carries and yards per run aren’t the only stats that have been getting better as he gets more experience. Just like his volume and efficiency, Derrick Henry’s touchdown total has been consistently getting better since he’s come into the league.
From five his rookie year and to six the following, Derrick Henry saw his touchdown total skyrocket in year three as his volume increased, doubling his touchdown total to 12. And in 2019, he kept getting better, finding the endzone a total of 18 times– and 16 on the ground.
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Touchdown production might be another area of concern for Henry, as a large portion of his fantasy production came on a nose for the endzone that might be difficult to replicate. But once again, there should be a reason for optimism that Henry can repeat his gaudy touchdown stats in year five.
Something else that is fighting the idea of regression here, last year the Titans suffered the growing pains of starting the season with three of the offensive line positions in flux. Now the Titans return four of the five starters in front of Derrick Henry as well as continuity in OC and QB.
That familiarity should make the Titans rushing attack even better early on in the season, especially when you look at the difference in success on the left side of the line when 2019 started to where they are now.
The Titans rely on Derrick Henry’s rushing ability all over the field but are leaning on him especially hard when the team gets into the red zone– which may not be a surprise given how successful Henry was from 20 yards to the goal line in 2019.
Red zone dominator
At 3.36 yards per carry on all his red zone attempts, Henry averaged higher-efficiency running on his red zone carries than elite running backs like Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, Nick Chubb, and Dalvin Cook. And for all his success in the red zone, Henry was rewarded by the team with plenty of reps.
Once inside the 10-yard line, no player in the NFL got a higher percentage of their team’s carries than Derrick Henry, who rewarded the Titans with a total of 13 rushing touchdowns inside the 20-yard line.
All said, there are two main takeaways from Henry’s 2019 red zone numbers. One, when the Titans get inside the 20, they’re leaning heavily on Derrick Henry. And two, when the Titans lean on Derrick Henry in the red zone, he’s one of the hardest players in the league to stop.
Big play touchdown runs might be a concern for regression, but red zone production on the level that Henry put together is easier to recreate– especially with how many carries Tennessee gave him inside the 20.
Henry could realistically play in 2020 at the same level as he did in 2019, from his touchdown production to his rushing efficiency to his heavy volume. And with how much Henry improved once Ryan Tannehill took over the offense, there’s reason to think that Henry’s per game fantasy production could be consistently around 20 points.
With all of Henry’s elite traits and production together, he could put together a top-two fantasy season for a running back– pass-catching volume or not.