Pros and Cons of Vic Beasley not playing with the Titans in 2020

What would Vic Beasley‘s absence mean for Titans?

Everyone knew that the Tennessee Titans signing Vic Beasley was a strange fit, even when the deal was announced.

I’m not saying that Beasley won’t be with the Titans this season, but even if he is with them soon it doesn’t mean that he won’t opt out before the deadline in a week. But this is a massive decision that could cause a domino effect through at least 2021 for Tennessee.

Before I go down that rabbit hole, let me remind you why Beasley shouldn’t necessarily be counted on even if he does show up.

Free agency officially started March 18th and in the week leading up to that date names and teams started leaking out. One of the last ones to come out was Vic Beasley to the Titans on a one year deal which came out on March 17th.

Well, the official start date came and went and there was no sign of Beasley. Even stranger, when the Titans did start announcing their free agents, the first three they announced were MyCole Pruitt, Ty Sambrailo and Nate Dzubnar from March 24th-26th.

It wasn’t until a full week later that they announced the signing of Beasley officially.

That is really strange, especially when you consider that Beasley was the only free agent the Titans brought in on a deal worth more than $10 million.

At first, the thought was that maybe that delayed signing was just a weird byproduct of the pandemic and some sort of physical he needed to take.

But now we learn that Beasley didn’t show up to camp with the rest of the veterans…alright, so what is the excuse now? And even the fact that fans have to ask that about a player on a one-year deal is ridiculous because if you are on a one year deal it likely means that this is one of the few teams that were really going to give you a shot.

With that in mind, let’s look at the Pros of Beasley showing up as well as the Cons.

Pro #1: The Tennessee Titans could get another player with high upside as a pass rusher.

Assuming Vic Beasley is on the roster, he is one of several Titans who could be in for big seasons rushing the passer. Harold Landry is the other obvious one, but it wasn’t that long ago when Jayon Brown had 6 sacks as a sub-package player and Derick Roberson had 3 sacks while playing 2.6% of the snaps last season.

Boom years could be coming from any of those young players, and that is before you even consider the possible addition of Beasley.

If Beasley were to join the team as exactly what Cam Wake was (a pure pass-rushing EDGE whose only job is to win with speed) then it would open everything up for everyone just like it did in 2019 when Wake was on the field.

That means better chances for the linebackers on blitzes, fewer TE/RB chips on Landry when he pins his ears back, and more confusion for Roberson to take advantage of on those stunts he does so well.

The thing is, all of these things don’t need to happen for the Titans defense to be great. However, if all of these players have a 50% chance of becoming double-digit sack players, then throwing one more name onto that list would almost lead you to assume that the Titans would have multiple 10+ sack players for the first time since 1993(!).

Con #1: The Titans would get back $9.5 million

Right now, Vic Beasley is scheduled to be paid $9.5 million and he is the 7th highest-paid player on the Titans roster.

While that seems like a misprint, it is true now that Derrick Henry is off the franchise tag and on to a much more team-friendly deal.

If Vic Beasley were to opt-out of his deal with the Titans, that means that he would get $150,000 as essentially a loan from the team, and he would remove his entire cap hit from the roster.

Tennessee currently has $24 million in cap space on the books for this year which is 4th best in the NFL (pending whatever the final number is with New England). This move would push them up to nearly $34 million, putting them in 3rd and very close to the top spot which is the Cleveland Browns with $38 million.

That is a lot of money and a lot of flexibility when you remember that a cap drop is likely coming in 2021, and for a player that is more of a supplement to the starting defense instead of a true starter, that would be a very nice consolation prize.

Sure, cap space doesn’t mean that you have a better team or that you will automatically be able to improve your roster next year because bad deals get signed every single season. However, it does mean that you will have the freedom to pursue anyone that you believe can help your team and that is valuable for an NFL GM.

Pro #2: Clowney doesn’t have leverage on Tennessee

The Jadeveon Clowney deal will be completely independent of any current players on the Tennessee Titans roster if it ever happens. However, the perception of need can create a division between Clowney and the Titans front office.

For example, I think that if Vic Beasley is in the fold, Jadeveon Clowney and his agent sees his value to the Titans as a starter on 50% of drives and a sub-package chess piece on most 3rd downs.

However, if Beasley isn’t in the mix then the idea of what Clowney needs to do for the Titans changes. Suddenly his agent isn’t going to just ask for a one-year deal to inflate his stats before going out and trying to get a huge contract in 2021.

Now you are going to be (theoretically) asking for a starter on base downs and on 3rd downs which means he should be paid more than anything they were initially trying to find common ground on.

You could make the case that more opportunity gives Clowney a better chance to inflate his stats, but you have to remember that Clowney is like Ndamukong Suh in that he probably isn’t looking for the best situation, but rather the best financial situation.

Based off of his NFL career, we can assume that Clowney is looking for a season to put big numbers on paper on a winning team and being used in a limited role gives him a built-in excuse for why he could be a “steal” for a team even with a big price tag.

Con #2: Titans lose a 5th round pick

Nick Korte is the magician/statistician that predicts the compensatory picks extremely well, and he weighed in on what Beasley’s vacation could mean for the Titans.

Getting a pick for Marcus Mariota has some symbolic meaning to it that goes beyond the actual value of a 5th round pick, and it would be nice for the fan base to be compensated for their heartbreak with that whole situation.

Looking strictly at that pick, that means the Titans 2021 draft would look like this:

1st round pick

2nd round pick

3rd round pick

3rd round pick (Jack Conklin compensatory pick)

4th round pick

5th round pick

5th round pick (Mariota compensatory pick)

6th round pick (from Kansas City Chiefs trading for the pick that the Titans got for Jurrell Casey)

6th round pick

7th round pick

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10 picks in the 2021 NFL Draft would be outstanding because (again) the cap is dropping in 2021 and cheap rookie deals are a great way to avoid paying veterans around $4 million to be backups.

Also, just a reminder on how valuable those 3rd round picks and beyond have been for Jon Robinson, here are some players he has drafted or traded for with those picks.

2020: Ryan Tannehill (4th)

2019: David Long (6th), Nate Davis (3rd), Amani Hooker (4th)

2018: Dane Cruikshank (5th)

2017: Jayon Brown (5th), Jonnu Smith (3rd)

2016: Kevin Byard (3rd), Tajae Sharpe (5th)

If the compensatory picks can give the Titans two guys that fall somewhere in that spectrum, then losing Vic Beasley might be worth it.